Coritiba – Grêmio
Brasileirão · Monday 26 October 22:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
22:30Low reliabilityHomeCoritiba1-1likelyAwayGrêmioModel1 · Coritiba 43%
Home
Coritiba
1-1likely
Away
Grêmio
Match CenterStatistics only
143%
X28%
229%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DLLDL
Away form
LDDDL
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.5 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Grêmio. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Coritiba43%
Safer double chance1X71%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 37% more than the away side.
- CoritibaCoritiba defence: concedes 22% more than average.
- GrêmioGrêmio attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
- CoritibaCoritiba attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
- GrêmioGrêmio defence: concedes 8% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Grêmio: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.5 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Grêmio. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
X2 · Grêmio avoid defeat57%
League average for this market51% · +6 points
Safer alternative1X · 71%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 71% · 1X · Coritiba avoid defeat · 71%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.5 - 1.2
total 2.7
Over 2.5
51%
Under 49%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
Latest games: Coritiba
L@ Mineiro1-0
Dvs Botafogo1-1
L@ Fluminense4-0
L@ Vasco da Gama5-0
Dvs Paranaense3-3
Latest games: Grêmio
Lvs Cruzeiro2-4
Dvs Internacional1-1
D@ Clube do Remo1-1
Dvs Palmeiras0-0
L@ Botafogo3-2
Latest head-to-heads
26/04/26Grêmio – Coritiba1-0