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Fischietto finale

Brasileirão · matchday 32

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 17:08
Clearest prediction of the round
Flamengo
63%
X
24%
Mineiro
14%
Likely score 2-0Model prediction 1 + Over 1.5 · 50%
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Monday 26 October

22:30Low reliability
Home
Coritiba
1-1likely
Away
Grêmio
Model1 · Coritiba 43%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECoritiba
VS
AWAYGrêmio
143%
X28%
229%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DLLDL
Away form
LDDDL
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.5 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Grêmio. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Coritiba43%
Safer double chance1X71%
Most likely exact score1-113%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 37% more than the away side.
  • CoritibaCoritiba defence: concedes 22% more than average.
  • GrêmioGrêmio attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
  • CoritibaCoritiba attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
  • GrêmioGrêmio defence: concedes 8% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Grêmio: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.5 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Grêmio. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Grêmio avoid defeat57%
League average for this market51% · +6 points
Safer alternative1X · 71%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 71% · 1X · Coritiba avoid defeat · 71%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
13% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.5 - 1.2
total 2.7
Over 2.5
51%
Under 49%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
Latest games: Coritiba
L@ Mineiro1-0
Dvs Botafogo1-1
L@ Fluminense4-0
L@ Vasco da Gama5-0
Dvs Paranaense3-3
Latest games: Grêmio
Lvs Cruzeiro2-4
Dvs Internacional1-1
D@ Clube do Remo1-1
Dvs Palmeiras0-0
L@ Botafogo3-2
Latest head-to-heads
26/04/26Grêmio – Coritiba1-0
23:00High reliability
Home
Flamengo
2-0likely
Away
Mineiro
Model1 · Flamengo 63%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEFlamengo
VS
AWAYMineiro
163%
X24%
214%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWDWW
Away form
DWDWW
Most likely score2-012%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.9 goals for Flamengo and 0.8 for Mineiro. Flamengo start as favourites (63%), helped by home advantage.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Flamengo63%
Safer double chance1X86%
Most likely exact score2-012%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • FlamengoFlamengo attack: scores 41% more than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 37% more than the away side.
  • FlamengoFlamengo defence: concedes 32% less than average.
  • MineiroMineiro defence: concedes 15% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Flamengo WWDWW, Mineiro DWDWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Flamengo and 0.8 for Mineiro: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.9 goals for Flamengo and 0.8 for Mineiro. Flamengo start as favourites (63%), helped by home advantage.

The model's final prediction
1 + Over 1.550%
League average for this market37% · +14 points
Safer alternative1X · 86%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 75% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72%
Most likely exact score2-0 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-0
12% · then 1-0, 1-1
Expected goals
1.9 - 0.8
total 2.7
Over 2.5
50%
Under 50%
Both teams score
47%
No 53%
Latest games: Flamengo
W@ Bahia0-3
Wvs Fluminense1-0
D@ Santos2-2
Wvs Bragantino2-1
Wvs Corinthians2-1
Latest games: Mineiro
Wvs Coritiba1-0
Wvs Santos2-1
D@ Paranaense2-2
Wvs Bragantino1-0
Dvs Chapecoense1-1
Latest head-to-heads
26/04/26Mineiro – Flamengo0-4
26/11/25Mineiro – Flamengo1-1
27/07/25Flamengo – Mineiro1-0

Next rounds

Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.

Matchday 33

Bragantino – ChapecoenseWed 28 Oct 22:30 · likely 2-01 62%X 23%2 15%
Fluminense – InternacionalWed 28 Oct 22:30 · likely 1-11 54%X 26%2 20%
Santos – PalmeirasWed 28 Oct 22:30 · likely 1-11 28%X 29%2 44%
Bahia – São PauloThu 29 Oct 00:30 · likely 1-11 47%X 30%2 23%
Clube do Remo – BotafogoThu 29 Oct 00:30 · likely 1-11 40%X 30%2 30%
Mineiro – CruzeiroThu 29 Oct 22:30 · likely 1-11 44%X 27%2 28%
Vasco da Gama – FlamengoThu 29 Oct 23:00 · likely 1-11 23%X 26%2 51%
Grêmio – ParanaenseFri 30 Oct 00:30 · likely 1-11 33%X 27%2 40%
Corinthians – MirassolFri 30 Oct 23:00 · likely 1-11 38%X 30%2 32%
Coritiba – VitóriaSat 31 Oct 19:00 · likely 1-11 42%X 28%2 30%

Matchday 34

Bragantino – SantosMon 2 Nov 23:00 · likely 1-11 41%X 28%2 31%
Chapecoense – MirassolTue 3 Nov 22:30 · likely 1-11 30%X 28%2 42%
Internacional – CoritibaWed 4 Nov 00:30 · likely 1-11 54%X 26%2 21%
Paranaense – Vasco da GamaWed 4 Nov 22:30 · likely 1-11 56%X 24%2 21%
Flamengo – GrêmioWed 4 Nov 22:30 · likely 2-01 75%X 17%2 8%
Botafogo – MineiroThu 5 Nov 00:30 · likely 1-11 35%X 30%2 35%
São Paulo – CorinthiansThu 5 Nov 00:30 · likely 1-11 48%X 29%2 22%
Palmeiras – Clube do RemoThu 5 Nov 22:30 · likely 2-01 72%X 20%2 8%
Cruzeiro – BahiaFri 6 Nov 00:30 · likely 1-11 53%X 25%2 22%
Vitória – FluminenseFri 6 Nov 23:00 · likely 1-11 34%X 29%2 37%