Flamengo – Mineiro
Brasileirão · Monday 26 October 23:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
23:00High reliabilityHomeFlamengo2-0likelyAwayMineiroModel1 · Flamengo 63%
Home
Flamengo
2-0likely
Away
Mineiro
Match CenterStatistics only
163%
X24%
214%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWDWW
Away form
DWDWW
Most likely score2-012%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.9 goals for Flamengo and 0.8 for Mineiro. Flamengo start as favourites (63%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Flamengo63%
Safer double chance1X86%
Most likely exact score2-012%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- FlamengoFlamengo attack: scores 41% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 37% more than the away side.
- FlamengoFlamengo defence: concedes 32% less than average.
- MineiroMineiro defence: concedes 15% less than average.
- MatchRecent form: Flamengo WWDWW, Mineiro DWDWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Flamengo and 0.8 for Mineiro: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.9 goals for Flamengo and 0.8 for Mineiro. Flamengo start as favourites (63%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 + Over 1.550%
League average for this market37% · +14 points
Safer alternative1X · 86%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 75% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72%
Most likely exact score2-0 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-0
12% · then 1-0, 1-1
Expected goals
1.9 - 0.8
total 2.7
Over 2.5
50%
Under 50%
Both teams score
47%
No 53%
Latest games: Flamengo
W@ Bahia0-3
Wvs Fluminense1-0
D@ Santos2-2
Wvs Bragantino2-1
Wvs Corinthians2-1
Latest games: Mineiro
Wvs Coritiba1-0
Wvs Santos2-1
D@ Paranaense2-2
Wvs Bragantino1-0
Dvs Chapecoense1-1
Latest head-to-heads
26/04/26Mineiro – Flamengo0-4
26/11/25Mineiro – Flamengo1-1
27/07/25Flamengo – Mineiro1-0