Mineiro – Cruzeiro
Brasileirão · Thursday 29 October 22:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
22:30Medium reliabilityHomeMineiro1-1likelyAwayCruzeiroModel1 · Mineiro 45%
Home
Mineiro
1-1likely
Away
Cruzeiro
Match CenterStatistics only
145%
X27%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WDWWD
Away form
WWLWW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.6 goals for Mineiro and 1.2 for Cruzeiro. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Mineiro45%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 36% more than the away side.
- CruzeiroCruzeiro attack: scores 23% more than the league average.
- MineiroMineiro defence: concedes 14% less than average.
- MineiroMineiro attack: scores 4% more than the league average.
- CruzeiroCruzeiro defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Mineiro and 1.2 for Cruzeiro: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.6 goals for Mineiro and 1.2 for Cruzeiro. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals53%
League average for this market48% · +5 points
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Mineiro avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.8
Over 2.5
53%
Under 47%
Both teams score
57%
No 43%
Latest games: Mineiro
D@ Flamengo2-2
Wvs Coritiba1-0
Wvs Santos2-1
D@ Paranaense2-2
Wvs Bragantino1-0
Latest games: Cruzeiro
Wvs Clube do Remo1-0
W@ Grêmio2-4
L@ Bragantino4-2
Wvs São Paulo2-0
W@ Vitória1-3
Latest head-to-heads
03/05/26Cruzeiro – Mineiro1-3
16/10/25Mineiro – Cruzeiro1-1
18/05/25Cruzeiro – Mineiro0-0