Bahia – São Paulo
Brasileirão · Thursday 29 October 00:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
00:30Medium reliabilityHomeBahia1-1likelyAwaySão PauloModel1 · Bahia 47%
Home
Bahia
1-1likely
Away
São Paulo
Match CenterStatistics only
147%
X29%
224%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.9
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WLLWL
Away form
LLWWD
Most likely score1-114%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.4 goals for Bahia and 0.9 for São Paulo. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Bahia47%
Safer double chance1X76%
Most likely exact score1-114%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 36% more than the away side.
- São PauloSão Paulo attack: scores 13% less than the league average.
- São PauloSão Paulo defence: concedes 10% less than average.
- BahiaBahia defence: concedes 4% less than average.
- BahiaBahia attack: scores 3% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Bahia and 0.9 for São Paulo: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.4 goals for Bahia and 0.9 for São Paulo. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
The model's final prediction
Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals58%
League average for this market52% · +7 points
Safer alternative1X · 76%
Other strong markets1X · Bahia avoid defeat · 76% · Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 14%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
14% · then 1-0, 0-0
Expected goals
1.4 - 0.9
total 2.3
Over 2.5
42%
Under 58%
Both teams score
47%
No 53%
Latest games: Bahia
Lvs Flamengo0-3
Wvs Mirassol1-0
L@ Palmeiras1-0
L@ Paranaense2-1
Wvs Clube do Remo2-1
Latest games: São Paulo
D@ Mirassol1-1
Wvs Vasco da Gama1-0
Wvs Vitória2-1
L@ Cruzeiro2-0
Lvs Santos1-2
Latest head-to-heads
03/05/26São Paulo – Bahia2-2
26/10/25São Paulo – Bahia2-0
31/05/25Bahia – São Paulo2-1