Bragantino – Chapecoense
Brasileirão · Wednesday 28 October 22:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
22:30High reliabilityHomeBragantino2-0likelyAwayChapecoenseModel1 · Bragantino 64%
Home
Bragantino
2-0likely
Away
Chapecoense
Match CenterStatistics only
164%
X22%
214%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.9
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LDWDL
Away form
LDLLL
Most likely score2-011%
Why this outcome
The model expects 2.0 goals for Bragantino and 0.9 for Chapecoense. Bragantino start as favourites (64%), helped by home advantage.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Bragantino64%
Safer double chance1X86%
Most likely exact score2-011%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- ChapecoenseChapecoense defence: concedes 40% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 36% more than the away side.
- ChapecoenseChapecoense attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
- BragantinoBragantino attack: scores 4% less than the league average.
- BragantinoBragantino defence: concedes 4% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Bragantino and 0.9 for Chapecoense: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 2.0 goals for Bragantino and 0.9 for Chapecoense. Bragantino start as favourites (64%), helped by home advantage.
The model's final prediction
1 + Over 1.554%
League average for this market36% · +17 points
Safer alternative1X · 86%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 79% · 1X + Over 1.5 · 69%
Most likely exact score2-0 · 11%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
2-0
11% · then 1-0, 1-1
Expected goals
2.0 - 0.9
total 2.9
Over 2.5
56%
Under 44%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Bragantino
L@ Palmeiras2-0
D@ Clube do Remo1-1
Wvs Cruzeiro4-2
Dvs Mirassol1-1
L@ Mineiro1-0
Latest games: Chapecoense
L@ Botafogo1-0
Lvs Paranaense1-4
L@ Vitória4-0
D@ Mineiro1-1
Lvs Internacional1-2
Latest head-to-heads
03/05/26Chapecoense – Bragantino1-2