Corinthians – Mirassol
Brasileirão · Friday 30 October 23:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
23:00Low reliabilityHomeCorinthians1-1likelyAwayMirassolModel1 · Corinthians 38%
Home
Corinthians
1-1likely
Away
Mirassol
Match CenterStatistics only
138%
X29%
233%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LLLDL
Away form
WDLWD
Most likely score1-114%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.3 goals for Corinthians and 1.2 for Mirassol. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Corinthians38%
Safer double chance1X67%
Most likely exact score1-114%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 36% more than the away side.
- CorinthiansCorinthians attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- CorinthiansCorinthians defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- MirassolMirassol defence: concedes 4% less than average.
- MirassolMirassol attack: scores 3% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Corinthians and 1.2 for Mirassol: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.3 goals for Corinthians and 1.2 for Mirassol. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
The model's final prediction
X2 · Mirassol avoid defeat62%
League average for this market51% · +11 points
Safer alternative1X · 67%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 71% · 1X · Corinthians avoid defeat · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 14%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
14% · then 1-0, 0-0
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.2
total 2.4
Over 2.5
44%
Under 56%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Corinthians
L@ Vasco da Gama3-2
Dvs Vitória1-1
L@ Palmeiras4-1
L@ Internacional2-1
Lvs Fluminense1-3
Latest games: Mirassol
Dvs São Paulo1-1
Wvs Internacional2-0
L@ Bahia1-0
D@ Bragantino1-1
Wvs Botafogo2-0
Latest head-to-heads
03/05/26Mirassol – Corinthians2-1
05/10/25Corinthians – Mirassol3-0
10/05/25Mirassol – Corinthians2-1