Coritiba – Vitória
Brasileirão · Saturday 31 October 19:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
19:00Low reliabilityHomeCoritiba1-1likelyAwayVitóriaModel1 · Coritiba 40%
Home
Coritiba
1-1likely
Away
Vitória
Match CenterStatistics only
140%
X29%
231%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LLDLL
Away form
LWLDD
Most likely score1-114%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.3 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Vitória. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Coritiba40%
Safer double chance1X69%
Most likely exact score1-114%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 36% more than the away side.
- CoritibaCoritiba defence: concedes 21% more than average.
- VitóriaVitória attack: scores 14% less than the league average.
- CoritibaCoritiba attack: scores 13% less than the league average.
- VitóriaVitória defence: concedes 3% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Vitória: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.3 goals for Coritiba and 1.2 for Vitória. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
The model's final prediction
X2 · Vitória avoid defeat60%
League average for this market51% · +9 points
Safer alternative1X · 69%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 72% · 1X · Coritiba avoid defeat · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 14%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
14% · then 1-0, 0-0
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.2
total 2.5
Over 2.5
46%
Under 54%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Coritiba
Lvs Grêmio0-1
L@ Mineiro1-0
Dvs Botafogo1-1
L@ Fluminense4-0
L@ Vasco da Gama5-0
Latest games: Vitória
Dvs Paranaense1-1
D@ Corinthians1-1
L@ São Paulo2-1
Wvs Chapecoense4-0
Lvs Cruzeiro1-3
Latest head-to-heads
02/05/26Vitória – Coritiba4-1