Grêmio – Paranaense
Brasileirão · Friday 30 October 00:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
00:30Low reliabilityHomeGrêmio1-1likelyAwayParanaenseModel2 · Paranaense 38%
Home
Grêmio
1-1likely
Away
Paranaense
Match CenterStatistics only
134%
X27%
238%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DDDLW
Away form
WDWLD
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.3 goals for Grêmio and 1.4 for Paranaense. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Paranaense38%
Safer double chanceX266%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 36% more than the away side.
- ParanaenseParanaense attack: scores 21% more than the league average.
- GrêmioGrêmio attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- GrêmioGrêmio defence: concedes 4% more than average.
- ParanaenseParanaense defence: concedes 2% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Grêmio and 1.4 for Paranaense: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.3 goals for Grêmio and 1.4 for Paranaense. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
X2 · Paranaense avoid defeat66%
League average for this market51% · +15 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 66%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 70% · X2 · Paranaense avoid defeat · 66%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-2, 0-1
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.4
total 2.8
Over 2.5
52%
Under 48%
Both teams score
57%
No 43%
Latest games: Grêmio
W@ Coritiba0-1
Lvs Cruzeiro2-4
Dvs Internacional1-1
D@ Clube do Remo1-1
Dvs Palmeiras0-0
Latest games: Paranaense
D@ Vitória1-1
Lvs Palmeiras0-2
W@ Chapecoense1-4
Dvs Mineiro2-2
Wvs Bahia2-1
Latest head-to-heads
02/05/26Paranaense – Grêmio0-0