Santos – Palmeiras
Brasileirão · Wednesday 28 October 22:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
22:30Low reliabilityHomeSantos1-1likelyAwayPalmeirasModel2 · Palmeiras 44%
Home
Santos
1-1likely
Away
Palmeiras
Match CenterStatistics only
128%
X28%
244%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WWDLW
Away form
DWWWW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.1 goals for Santos and 1.4 for Palmeiras. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Palmeiras44%
Safer double chanceX272%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- PalmeirasPalmeiras defence: concedes 39% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 36% more than the away side.
- PalmeirasPalmeiras attack: scores 25% more than the league average.
- SantosSantos attack: scores 18% more than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: Santos WWDLW, Palmeiras DWWWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Santos and 1.4 for Palmeiras: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.1 goals for Santos and 1.4 for Palmeiras. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (28%).
The model's final prediction
X2 · Palmeiras avoid defeat72%
League average for this market51% · +21 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 72%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 73% · X2 · Palmeiras avoid defeat · 72%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 0-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.4
total 2.6
Over 2.5
47%
Under 53%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Santos
W@ Fluminense1-2
L@ Mineiro2-1
Dvs Flamengo2-2
W@ São Paulo1-2
W@ Clube do Remo1-2
Latest games: Palmeiras
Wvs Bragantino2-0
W@ Paranaense0-2
Wvs Corinthians4-1
Wvs Bahia1-0
D@ Grêmio0-0
Latest head-to-heads
02/05/26Palmeiras – Santos1-1
16/11/25Santos – Palmeiras1-0
07/11/25Palmeiras – Santos2-0