Vasco da Gama – Flamengo
Brasileirão · Thursday 29 October 23:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
23:00Medium reliabilityHomeVasco da Gama1-1likelyAwayFlamengoModel2 · Flamengo 50%
Home
Vasco da Gama
1-1likely
Away
Flamengo
Match CenterStatistics only
124%
X26%
250%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.7
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WWDLW
Away form
WDWWD
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.1 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.7 for Flamengo. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Flamengo50%
Safer double chanceX276%
Most likely exact score1-112%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- FlamengoFlamengo attack: scores 41% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 36% more than the away side.
- FlamengoFlamengo defence: concedes 29% less than average.
- Vasco da GamaVasco da Gama defence: concedes 5% more than average.
- Vasco da GamaVasco da Gama attack: scores 2% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.7 for Flamengo: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.1 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.7 for Flamengo. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
The model's final prediction
X2 · Flamengo avoid defeat76%
League average for this market51% · +25 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 76%
Other strong marketsX2 · Flamengo avoid defeat · 76% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
12% · then 1-2, 0-1
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.7
total 2.8
Over 2.5
53%
Under 47%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
Latest games: Vasco da Gama
Wvs Corinthians3-2
L@ São Paulo1-0
Dvs Clube do Remo0-0
W@ Botafogo1-2
Wvs Coritiba5-0
Latest games: Flamengo
Dvs Mineiro2-2
W@ Bahia0-3
Wvs Fluminense1-0
D@ Santos2-2
Wvs Bragantino2-1
Latest head-to-heads
03/05/26Flamengo – Vasco da Gama2-2
21/09/25Flamengo – Vasco da Gama1-1
19/04/25Vasco da Gama – Flamengo0-0