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Bundesliga · matchday 8

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:39

Schalke – RB Leipzig

Bundesliga · Saturday 31 October 14:30. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

14:30Low reliability
Home
Schalke
1-1likely
Away
RB Leipzig
Model2 · RB Leipzig 41%
Match CenterStatistics only
131%
X28%
241%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WDLLD
Away form
WLWLW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Schalke and 1.4 for RB Leipzig. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · RB Leipzig41%
Safer double chanceX269%
Most likely exact score1-113%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
  • SchalkeSchalke attack: scores 36% less than the league average.
  • RB LeipzigRB Leipzig attack: scores 28% more than the league average.
  • SchalkeSchalke defence: concedes 26% less than average.
  • RB LeipzigRB Leipzig defence: concedes 9% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Schalke and 1.4 for RB Leipzig: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Schalke and 1.4 for RB Leipzig. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals76%
League average for this market55% · +21 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 69%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 71% · X2 · RB Leipzig avoid defeat · 69%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
13% · then 0-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.4
total 2.5
Over 2.5
45%
Under 55%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Schalke
D@ 1. FC Köln0-0
Lvs Mainz0-1
L@ Freiburg2-1
Dvs Elversberg0-0
W@ Union Berlin1-3
Latest games: RB Leipzig
Wvs Elversberg4-0
L@ Bayern6-1
Wvs Frankfurt6-0
L@ Leverkusen2-0
Wvs HSV5-0

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