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Friday 30 October
19:30Medium reliabilityHomeElversberg2-1likelyAwayMainzModel1 · Elversberg 49%
The model expects 2.2 goals for Elversberg and 1.7 for Mainz. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- ElversbergElversberg defence: concedes 13% more than average.
- MainzMainz defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- MainzMainz attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
- ElversbergElversberg attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.2 goals for Elversberg and 1.7 for Mainz: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.2 goals for Elversberg and 1.7 for Mainz. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Saturday 31 October
14:30Low reliabilityHomeM'gladbach1-1likelyAwaySC PaderbornModel1 · M'gladbach 44%
The model expects 1.6 goals for M'gladbach and 1.2 for SC Paderborn. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- SC PaderbornSC Paderborn attack: scores 25% less than the league average.
- M'gladbachM'gladbach defence: concedes 18% more than average.
- SC PaderbornSC Paderborn defence: concedes 11% less than average.
- M'gladbachM'gladbach attack: scores 10% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for M'gladbach and 1.2 for SC Paderborn: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for M'gladbach and 1.2 for SC Paderborn. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
14:30Low reliabilityHomeSchalke1-1likelyAwayRB LeipzigModel2 · RB Leipzig 41%
The model expects 1.1 goals for Schalke and 1.4 for RB Leipzig. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- SchalkeSchalke attack: scores 36% less than the league average.
- RB LeipzigRB Leipzig attack: scores 28% more than the league average.
- SchalkeSchalke defence: concedes 26% less than average.
- RB LeipzigRB Leipzig defence: concedes 9% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Schalke and 1.4 for RB Leipzig: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.1 goals for Schalke and 1.4 for RB Leipzig. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
14:30Low reliabilityHomeAugsburg1-1likelyAwayFreiburgModel1 · Augsburg 44%
The model expects 1.9 goals for Augsburg and 1.7 for Freiburg. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- FreiburgFreiburg attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
- AugsburgAugsburg attack: scores 8% more than the league average.
- FreiburgFreiburg defence: concedes 8% less than average.
- AugsburgAugsburg defence: concedes 6% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Augsburg and 1.7 for Freiburg: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.9 goals for Augsburg and 1.7 for Freiburg. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
14:30Medium reliabilityHomeBremen2-1likelyAwayHoffenheimModel1 · Bremen 51%
The model expects 2.2 goals for Bremen and 1.6 for Hoffenheim. Bremen start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- HoffenheimHoffenheim defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- HoffenheimHoffenheim attack: scores 9% more than the league average.
- BremenBremen defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- BremenBremen attack: scores 1% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.2 goals for Bremen and 1.6 for Hoffenheim: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.2 goals for Bremen and 1.6 for Hoffenheim. Bremen start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
14:30High reliabilityHomeLeverkusen2-1likelyAwayStuttgartModel1 · Leverkusen 61%
The model expects 2.4 goals for Leverkusen and 1.4 for Stuttgart. Leverkusen start as favourites (61%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- LeverkusenLeverkusen attack: scores 26% more than the league average.
- LeverkusenLeverkusen defence: concedes 11% less than average.
- StuttgartStuttgart attack: scores 10% more than the league average.
- StuttgartStuttgart defence: concedes 3% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.4 goals for Leverkusen and 1.4 for Stuttgart: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.4 goals for Leverkusen and 1.4 for Stuttgart. Leverkusen start as favourites (61%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:30High reliabilityHomeBayern2-1likelyAwayDortmundModel1 · Bayern 64%
The model expects 2.4 goals for Bayern and 1.1 for Dortmund. Bayern start as favourites (64%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- BayernBayern attack: scores 83% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- DortmundDortmund defence: concedes 35% less than average.
- BayernBayern defence: concedes 24% less than average.
- DortmundDortmund attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.4 goals for Bayern and 1.1 for Dortmund: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.4 goals for Bayern and 1.1 for Dortmund. Bayern start as favourites (64%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Sunday 1 November
14:30Medium reliabilityHomeUnion Berlin1-1likelyAway1. FC KölnModel1 · Union Berlin 46%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Union Berlin and 1.2 for 1. FC Köln. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- Union BerlinUnion Berlin attack: scores 22% less than the league average.
- 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln attack: scores 19% less than the league average.
- Union BerlinUnion Berlin defence: concedes 10% more than average.
- 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln defence: concedes 7% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Union Berlin and 1.2 for 1. FC Köln: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Union Berlin and 1.2 for 1. FC Köln. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
16:30Medium reliabilityHomeFrankfurt1-1likelyAwayHSVModel1 · Frankfurt 54%
The model expects 2.0 goals for Frankfurt and 1.3 for HSV. Frankfurt start as favourites (54%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 39% more than the away side.
- HSVHSV attack: scores 23% less than the league average.
- FrankfurtFrankfurt defence: concedes 16% more than average.
- HSVHSV defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- FrankfurtFrankfurt attack: scores 4% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Frankfurt and 1.3 for HSV: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.0 goals for Frankfurt and 1.3 for HSV. Frankfurt start as favourites (54%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.
Matchday 7
Matchday 9
Already played
Last 18 predicted matches: outcome right 8 times out of 18.