‹ HomeIT

Fischietto finale

Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Alcalá – Las Palmas

Copa del Rey · Tuesday 27 October 19:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

19:00Low reliability
Home
Alcalá
1-1likely
Away
Las Palmas
Model2 · Las Palmas 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAlcalá
VS
AWAYLas Palmas
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Alcalá and 1.9 for Las Palmas. Las Palmas are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Las Palmas57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • AlcaláAlcalá defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AlcaláAlcalá attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Las PalmasLas Palmas defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • Las PalmasLas Palmas attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Alcalá and 1.9 for Las Palmas: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Alcalá and 1.9 for Las Palmas. Las Palmas are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Las Palmas avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%

All Copa del Rey matches →