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Fischietto finale

Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41
Clearest prediction of the round
Manacor
7%
X
14%
Villarreal
78%
Likely score 0-2Model prediction X2 · Villarreal avoid defeat · 93%
Open the analysis

Tap a match to open the details. There you can also make your own prediction and challenge the model: My predictions →

Tuesday 27 October

17:30Low reliability
Home
CD Cuarte
0-2likely
Away
Girona
Model2 · Girona 75%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECD Cuarte
VS
AWAYGirona
19%
X16%
275%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for CD Cuarte and 2.5 for Girona. Girona are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Girona75%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CD CuarteCD Cuarte defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD CuarteCD Cuarte attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • GironaGirona defence: concedes 8% less than average.
  • GironaGirona attack: scores 1% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for CD Cuarte and 2.5 for Girona: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for CD Cuarte and 2.5 for Girona. Girona are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Girona avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 0-1
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
63%
Under 37%
Both teams score
49%
No 51%
18:00Low reliability
Home
Atlético Pinatarense
0-2likely
Away
Elche
Model2 · Elche 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAtlético Pinatarense
VS
AWAYElche
19%
X15%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Pinatarense and 2.6 for Elche. Elche are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Elche76%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Atlético PinatarenseAtlético Pinatarense defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Atlético PinatarenseAtlético Pinatarense attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • ElcheElche attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
  • ElcheElche defence: concedes 5% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Pinatarense and 2.6 for Elche: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Pinatarense and 2.6 for Elche. Elche are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Elche avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 86% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 79%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.6
total 3.4
Over 2.5
66%
Under 34%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Atlético Pinatarense
W@ Atlético Melilla0-3
Wvs Atlético Melilla8-0
18:00Low reliability
Home
CF Calamocha
1-1likely
Away
CE Europa
Model1 · CF Calamocha 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECF Calamocha
VS
AWAYCE Europa
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for CF Calamocha and 1.2 for CE Europa. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · CF Calamocha46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CE EuropaCE Europa defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CF CalamochaCF Calamocha defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CF CalamochaCF Calamocha attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • CE EuropaCE Europa attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for CF Calamocha and 1.2 for CE Europa: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for CF Calamocha and 1.2 for CE Europa. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · CF Calamocha avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
18:00Low reliability
Home
Sestao
0-2likely
Away
Espanyol
Model2 · Espanyol 74%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESestao
VS
AWAYEspanyol
19%
X17%
274%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sestao and 2.5 for Espanyol. Espanyol are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Espanyol74%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • SestaoSestao defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • SestaoSestao attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • EspanyolEspanyol defence: concedes 6% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Sestao and 2.5 for Espanyol: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sestao and 2.5 for Espanyol. Espanyol are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Espanyol avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 77%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 0-1
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.2
Over 2.5
63%
Under 37%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
18:45Low reliability
Home
UD Castellonense
1-1likely
Away
Almería
Model2 · Almería 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEUD Castellonense
VS
AWAYAlmería
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for UD Castellonense and 1.9 for Almería. Almería are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Almería57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • UD CastellonenseUD Castellonense defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • UD CastellonenseUD Castellonense attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • AlmeríaAlmería defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • AlmeríaAlmería attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for UD Castellonense and 1.9 for Almería: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for UD Castellonense and 1.9 for Almería. Almería are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Almería avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Alcalá
1-1likely
Away
Las Palmas
Model2 · Las Palmas 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAlcalá
VS
AWAYLas Palmas
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Alcalá and 1.9 for Las Palmas. Las Palmas are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Las Palmas57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • AlcaláAlcalá defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AlcaláAlcalá attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Las PalmasLas Palmas defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • Las PalmasLas Palmas attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Alcalá and 1.9 for Las Palmas: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Alcalá and 1.9 for Las Palmas. Las Palmas are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Las Palmas avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Atlético Tordesillas
1-1likely
Away
Mirandés
Model1 · Atlético Tordesillas 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAtlético Tordesillas
VS
AWAYMirandés
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Atlético Tordesillas and 1.2 for Mirandés. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Atlético Tordesillas46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MirandésMirandés defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Atlético TordesillasAtlético Tordesillas defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Atlético TordesillasAtlético Tordesillas attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MirandésMirandés attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Atlético Tordesillas and 1.2 for Mirandés: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Atlético Tordesillas and 1.2 for Mirandés. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Atlético Tordesillas avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Ciudad De Lucena
1-1likely
Away
Rayo Majadahonda
Model1 · Ciudad De Lucena 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECiudad De Lucena
VS
AWAYRayo Majadahonda
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Ciudad De Lucena and 1.2 for Rayo Majadahonda. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Ciudad De Lucena46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Rayo MajadahondaRayo Majadahonda defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Ciudad De LucenaCiudad De Lucena defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Ciudad De LucenaCiudad De Lucena attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • Rayo MajadahondaRayo Majadahonda attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Ciudad De Lucena and 1.2 for Rayo Majadahonda: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Ciudad De Lucena and 1.2 for Rayo Majadahonda. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Ciudad De Lucena avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Gimnastica Segoviana
1-1likely
Away
Cultural Leonesa
Model1 · Gimnastica Segoviana 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEGimnastica Segoviana
VS
AWAYCultural Leonesa
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Gimnastica Segoviana and 1.2 for Cultural Leonesa. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Gimnastica Segoviana46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Cultural LeonesaCultural Leonesa defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Gimnastica SegovianaGimnastica Segoviana defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Gimnastica SegovianaGimnastica Segoviana attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • Cultural LeonesaCultural Leonesa attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Gimnastica Segoviana and 1.2 for Cultural Leonesa: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Gimnastica Segoviana and 1.2 for Cultural Leonesa. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Gimnastica Segoviana avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Llanera
1-1likely
Away
Ponferradina
Model1 · Llanera 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMELlanera
VS
AWAYPonferradina
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Llanera and 1.2 for Ponferradina. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Llanera46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • PonferradinaPonferradina defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • LlaneraLlanera defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • LlaneraLlanera attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • PonferradinaPonferradina attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Llanera and 1.2 for Ponferradina: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Llanera and 1.2 for Ponferradina. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Llanera avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:30Low reliability
Home
Don Benito
1-1likely
Away
CD Extremadura
Model1 · Don Benito 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEDon Benito
VS
AWAYCD Extremadura
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Don Benito and 1.2 for CD Extremadura. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Don Benito46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CD ExtremaduraCD Extremadura defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Don BenitoDon Benito defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Don BenitoDon Benito attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • CD ExtremaduraCD Extremadura attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Don Benito and 1.2 for CD Extremadura: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Don Benito and 1.2 for CD Extremadura. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Don Benito avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:30Low reliability
Home
Manresa
1-1likely
Away
Sant Andreu
Model1 · Manresa 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEManresa
VS
AWAYSant Andreu
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Manresa and 1.2 for Sant Andreu. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Manresa46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Sant AndreuSant Andreu defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • ManresaManresa defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • ManresaManresa attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • Sant AndreuSant Andreu attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Manresa and 1.2 for Sant Andreu: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Manresa and 1.2 for Sant Andreu. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Manresa avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
20:00Low reliability
Home
Arosa
1-1likely
Away
Pontevedra
Model1 · Arosa 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEArosa
VS
AWAYPontevedra
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Arosa and 1.2 for Pontevedra. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Arosa46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • PontevedraPontevedra defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • ArosaArosa defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • ArosaArosa attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • PontevedraPontevedra attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Arosa and 1.2 for Pontevedra: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Arosa and 1.2 for Pontevedra. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Arosa avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
20:00Low reliability
Home
Atlético Paso
1-1likely
Away
Córdoba
Model2 · Córdoba 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAtlético Paso
VS
AWAYCórdoba
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Atlético Paso and 1.9 for Córdoba. Córdoba are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Córdoba57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Atlético PasoAtlético Paso defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Atlético PasoAtlético Paso attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • CórdobaCórdoba defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • CórdobaCórdoba attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Atlético Paso and 1.9 for Córdoba: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Atlético Paso and 1.9 for Córdoba. Córdoba are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Córdoba avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
20:00Low reliability
Home
CD Tudelano
1-1likely
Away
Real Zaragoza
Model1 · CD Tudelano 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECD Tudelano
VS
AWAYReal Zaragoza
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for CD Tudelano and 1.2 for Real Zaragoza. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · CD Tudelano46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Real ZaragozaReal Zaragoza defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD TudelanoCD Tudelano defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD TudelanoCD Tudelano attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • Real ZaragozaReal Zaragoza attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for CD Tudelano and 1.2 for Real Zaragoza: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for CD Tudelano and 1.2 for Real Zaragoza. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · CD Tudelano avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
20:00Low reliability
Home
Manacor
0-2likely
Away
Villarreal
Model2 · Villarreal 78%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEManacor
VS
AWAYVillarreal
17%
X14%
278%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.7
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Manacor and 2.7 for Villarreal. Villarreal are favourites even away from home (78%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Villarreal78%
Safer double chanceX293%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • ManacorManacor defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • ManacorManacor attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • VillarrealVillarreal attack: scores 10% more than the league average.
  • VillarrealVillarreal defence: concedes 8% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Manacor and 2.7 for Villarreal: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Manacor and 2.7 for Villarreal. Villarreal are favourites even away from home (78%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Villarreal avoid defeat93%
Safer alternativeX2 · 93%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 87% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 81%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.7
total 3.5
Over 2.5
68%
Under 32%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
20:00Low reliability
Home
Recreativo Huelva
0-2likely
Away
Rayo Vallecano
Model2 · Rayo Vallecano 75%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMERecreativo Huelva
VS
AWAYRayo Vallecano
19%
X16%
275%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Recreativo Huelva and 2.5 for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Rayo Vallecano75%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Recreativo HuelvaRecreativo Huelva defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Recreativo HuelvaRecreativo Huelva attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano defence: concedes 4% less than average.
  • Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano attack: scores 3% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Recreativo Huelva and 2.5 for Rayo Vallecano: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Recreativo Huelva and 2.5 for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Rayo Vallecano avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
20:00Low reliability
Home
Sporting de Alcázar
0-2likely
Away
Málaga
Model2 · Málaga 71%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESporting de Alcázar
VS
AWAYMálaga
111%
X18%
271%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting de Alcázar and 2.4 for Málaga. Málaga are favourites even away from home (71%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Málaga71%
Safer double chanceX289%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Sporting de AlcázarSporting de Alcázar defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Sporting de AlcázarSporting de Alcázar attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • MálagaMálaga attack: scores 3% less than the league average.
  • MatchRecent form: Sporting de Alcázar WW, Málaga – (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting de Alcázar and 2.4 for Málaga: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting de Alcázar and 2.4 for Málaga. Málaga are favourites even away from home (71%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Málaga avoid defeat89%
Safer alternativeX2 · 89%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 76%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 1-2, 0-1
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.4
total 3.2
Over 2.5
63%
Under 37%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Sporting de Alcázar
Wvs CP Talayuela1-0
W@ CP Talayuela1-2

Wednesday 28 October

18:00Low reliability
Home
Anaitasuna
0-2likely
Away
Alavés
Model2 · Alavés 75%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAnaitasuna
VS
AWAYAlavés
19%
X16%
275%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Anaitasuna and 2.6 for Alavés. Alavés are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Alavés75%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • AnaitasunaAnaitasuna defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AnaitasunaAnaitasuna attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • AlavésAlavés defence: concedes 6% less than average.
  • AlavésAlavés attack: scores 4% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Anaitasuna and 2.6 for Alavés: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Anaitasuna and 2.6 for Alavés. Alavés are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Alavés avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 79%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.6
total 3.4
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Anaitasuna
W@ CD Tedeón2-5
Wvs CD Tedeón5-0
18:00Low reliability
Home
CD Pamplona
1-1likely
Away
Eibar
Model2 · Eibar 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECD Pamplona
VS
AWAYEibar
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for CD Pamplona and 1.9 for Eibar. Eibar are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Eibar57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CD PamplonaCD Pamplona defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD PamplonaCD Pamplona attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • EibarEibar defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • EibarEibar attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for CD Pamplona and 1.9 for Eibar: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for CD Pamplona and 1.9 for Eibar. Eibar are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Eibar avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
18:00Low reliability
Home
CD Tarancon
0-2likely
Away
Levante
Model2 · Levante 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECD Tarancon
VS
AWAYLevante
18%
X15%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.7
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for CD Tarancon and 2.7 for Levante. Levante are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Levante76%
Safer double chanceX292%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CD TaranconCD Tarancon defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD TaranconCD Tarancon attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • LevanteLevante attack: scores 8% more than the league average.
  • LevanteLevante defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for CD Tarancon and 2.7 for Levante: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for CD Tarancon and 2.7 for Levante. Levante are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Levante avoid defeat92%
Safer alternativeX2 · 92%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 86% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 80%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.7
total 3.5
Over 2.5
67%
Under 33%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
18:00Low reliability
Home
Coruxo
1-1likely
Away
Zamora CF
Model1 · Coruxo 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECoruxo
VS
AWAYZamora CF
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Coruxo and 1.2 for Zamora CF. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Coruxo46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Zamora CFZamora CF defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CoruxoCoruxo defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CoruxoCoruxo attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • Zamora CFZamora CF attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Coruxo and 1.2 for Zamora CF: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Coruxo and 1.2 for Zamora CF. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Coruxo avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
18:00Low reliability
Home
Peña Sport
1-1likely
Away
Huesca
Model1 · Peña Sport 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPeña Sport
VS
AWAYHuesca
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Peña Sport and 1.2 for Huesca. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Peña Sport46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • HuescaHuesca defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Peña SportPeña Sport defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Peña SportPeña Sport attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • HuescaHuesca attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Peña Sport and 1.2 for Huesca: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Peña Sport and 1.2 for Huesca. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Peña Sport avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
18:00Low reliability
Home
Poblense
1-1likely
Away
Ceuta
Model2 · Ceuta 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPoblense
VS
AWAYCeuta
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Poblense and 1.9 for Ceuta. Ceuta are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Ceuta57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • PoblensePoblense defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • PoblensePoblense attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • CeutaCeuta defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • CeutaCeuta attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Poblense and 1.9 for Ceuta: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Poblense and 1.9 for Ceuta. Ceuta are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Ceuta avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
18:00Low reliability
Home
Portugalete
1-1likely
Away
Real Unión Irun
Model1 · Portugalete 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPortugalete
VS
AWAYReal Unión Irun
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Portugalete and 1.2 for Real Unión Irun. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Portugalete46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Real Unión IrunReal Unión Irun defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • PortugaletePortugalete defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • PortugaletePortugalete attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • Real Unión IrunReal Unión Irun attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Portugalete and 1.2 for Real Unión Irun: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Portugalete and 1.2 for Real Unión Irun. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Portugalete avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
18:00Low reliability
Home
Utebo
1-1likely
Away
CD Sabadell
Model2 · CD Sabadell 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEUtebo
VS
AWAYCD Sabadell
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Utebo and 1.9 for CD Sabadell. CD Sabadell are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · CD Sabadell57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • UteboUtebo defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • UteboUtebo attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • CD SabadellCD Sabadell defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • CD SabadellCD Sabadell attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Utebo and 1.9 for CD Sabadell: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Utebo and 1.9 for CD Sabadell. CD Sabadell are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · CD Sabadell avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Alcoyano
0-2likely
Away
Mallorca
Model2 · Mallorca 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAlcoyano
VS
AWAYMallorca
19%
X16%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Alcoyano and 2.6 for Mallorca. Mallorca are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Mallorca76%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • AlcoyanoAlcoyano defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AlcoyanoAlcoyano attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • MallorcaMallorca defence: concedes 5% less than average.
  • MallorcaMallorca attack: scores 5% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Alcoyano and 2.6 for Mallorca: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Alcoyano and 2.6 for Mallorca. Mallorca are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Mallorca avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 79%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.6
total 3.4
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Amorebieta
1-1likely
Away
UD Logroñés
Model1 · Amorebieta 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAmorebieta
VS
AWAYUD Logroñés
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Amorebieta and 1.2 for UD Logroñés. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Amorebieta46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • UD LogroñésUD Logroñés defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AmorebietaAmorebieta defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AmorebietaAmorebieta attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • UD LogroñésUD Logroñés attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Amorebieta and 1.2 for UD Logroñés: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Amorebieta and 1.2 for UD Logroñés. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Amorebieta avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Badajoz
1-1likely
Away
Tenerife
Model2 · Tenerife 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEBadajoz
VS
AWAYTenerife
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Badajoz and 1.9 for Tenerife. Tenerife are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Tenerife57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • BadajozBadajoz defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • BadajozBadajoz attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • TenerifeTenerife defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • TenerifeTenerife attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Badajoz and 1.9 for Tenerife: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Badajoz and 1.9 for Tenerife. Tenerife are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Tenerife avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Calvo Sotelo
1-1likely
Away
Albacete
Model2 · Albacete 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECalvo Sotelo
VS
AWAYAlbacete
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Calvo Sotelo and 1.9 for Albacete. Albacete are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Albacete57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Calvo SoteloCalvo Sotelo defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Calvo SoteloCalvo Sotelo attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • AlbaceteAlbacete defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • AlbaceteAlbacete attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Calvo Sotelo and 1.9 for Albacete: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Calvo Sotelo and 1.9 for Albacete. Albacete are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Albacete avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Covadonga
1-1likely
Away
Real Valladolid
Model2 · Real Valladolid 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECovadonga
VS
AWAYReal Valladolid
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Covadonga and 1.9 for Real Valladolid. Real Valladolid are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Real Valladolid57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CovadongaCovadonga defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CovadongaCovadonga attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Real ValladolidReal Valladolid defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • Real ValladolidReal Valladolid attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Covadonga and 1.9 for Real Valladolid: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Covadonga and 1.9 for Real Valladolid. Real Valladolid are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Real Valladolid avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Mijas Las Lagunas
1-1likely
Away
Real Jaen CF
Model1 · Mijas Las Lagunas 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEMijas Las Lagunas
VS
AWAYReal Jaen CF
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Mijas Las Lagunas and 1.2 for Real Jaen CF. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Mijas Las Lagunas46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Real Jaen CFReal Jaen CF defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Mijas Las LagunasMijas Las Lagunas defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Mijas Las LagunasMijas Las Lagunas attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • Real Jaen CFReal Jaen CF attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Mijas Las Lagunas and 1.2 for Real Jaen CF: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Mijas Las Lagunas and 1.2 for Real Jaen CF. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Mijas Las Lagunas avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Numancia
0-2likely
Away
Real Oviedo
Model2 · Real Oviedo 72%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMENumancia
VS
AWAYReal Oviedo
110%
X17%
272%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Numancia and 2.4 for Real Oviedo. Real Oviedo are favourites even away from home (72%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Real Oviedo72%
Safer double chanceX290%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • NumanciaNumancia defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • NumanciaNumancia attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Real OviedoReal Oviedo defence: concedes 5% less than average.
  • Real OviedoReal Oviedo attack: scores 4% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Numancia and 2.4 for Real Oviedo: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Numancia and 2.4 for Real Oviedo. Real Oviedo are favourites even away from home (72%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Real Oviedo avoid defeat90%
Safer alternativeX2 · 90%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 83% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 76%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-1, 0-3
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.4
total 3.2
Over 2.5
61%
Under 39%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Trival Valderas
1-1likely
Away
Leganés
Model2 · Leganés 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMETrival Valderas
VS
AWAYLeganés
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Trival Valderas and 1.9 for Leganés. Leganés are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Leganés57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Trival ValderasTrival Valderas defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Trival ValderasTrival Valderas attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • LeganésLeganés defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • LeganésLeganés attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Trival Valderas and 1.9 for Leganés: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Trival Valderas and 1.9 for Leganés. Leganés are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Leganés avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:30Low reliability
Home
CD Minera
1-1likely
Away
FC Cartagena
Model1 · CD Minera 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECD Minera
VS
AWAYFC Cartagena
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for CD Minera and 1.2 for FC Cartagena. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · CD Minera46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • FC CartagenaFC Cartagena defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD MineraCD Minera defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD MineraCD Minera attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • FC CartagenaFC Cartagena attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for CD Minera and 1.2 for FC Cartagena: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for CD Minera and 1.2 for FC Cartagena. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · CD Minera avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:30Low reliability
Home
Cieza
1-1likely
Away
Granada
Model2 · Granada 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECieza
VS
AWAYGranada
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Cieza and 1.9 for Granada. Granada are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Granada57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CiezaCieza defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CiezaCieza attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • GranadaGranada defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • GranadaGranada attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Cieza and 1.9 for Granada: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Cieza and 1.9 for Granada. Granada are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Granada avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:30Low reliability
Home
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1-1likely
Away
UD Ourense
Model1 · Gimnástica Torrelavega 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEGimnástica Torrelavega
VS
AWAYUD Ourense
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 1.2 for UD Ourense. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Gimnástica Torrelavega46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • UD OurenseUD Ourense defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Gimnástica TorrelavegaGimnástica Torrelavega defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Gimnástica TorrelavegaGimnástica Torrelavega attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • UD OurenseUD Ourense attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 1.2 for UD Ourense: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega and 1.2 for UD Ourense. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Gimnástica Torrelavega avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:30Low reliability
Home
Reus FC Reddis
1-1likely
Away
Barakaldo
Model1 · Reus FC Reddis 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEReus FC Reddis
VS
AWAYBarakaldo
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Reus FC Reddis and 1.2 for Barakaldo. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Reus FC Reddis46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • BarakaldoBarakaldo defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Reus FC ReddisReus FC Reddis defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Reus FC ReddisReus FC Reddis attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • BarakaldoBarakaldo attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Reus FC Reddis and 1.2 for Barakaldo: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Reus FC Reddis and 1.2 for Barakaldo. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Reus FC Reddis avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
20:00Low reliability
Home
Salamanca UDS
0-2likely
Away
Celta Vigo
Model2 · Celta Vigo 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESalamanca UDS
VS
AWAYCelta Vigo
18%
X16%
276%
Expected goals0.7 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.7 goals for Salamanca UDS and 2.5 for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Celta Vigo76%
Safer double chanceX292%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Salamanca UDSSalamanca UDS defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Salamanca UDSSalamanca UDS attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Celta VigoCelta Vigo defence: concedes 11% less than average.
  • Celta VigoCelta Vigo attack: scores 3% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.7 goals for Salamanca UDS and 2.5 for Celta Vigo: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.7 goals for Salamanca UDS and 2.5 for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Celta Vigo avoid defeat92%
Safer alternativeX2 · 92%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 0-1
Expected goals
0.7 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
64%
Under 36%
Both teams score
48%
No 52%
20:00Low reliability
Home
Tavernes de la Valldigna
0-2likely
Away
Valencia
Model2 · Valencia 74%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMETavernes de la Valldigna
VS
AWAYValencia
19%
X17%
274%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DD
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Tavernes de la Valldigna and 2.4 for Valencia. Valencia are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Valencia74%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Tavernes de la ValldignaTavernes de la Valldigna defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Tavernes de la ValldignaTavernes de la Valldigna attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • ValenciaValencia defence: concedes 5% less than average.
  • ValenciaValencia attack: scores 1% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Tavernes de la Valldigna and 2.4 for Valencia: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Tavernes de la Valldigna and 2.4 for Valencia. Valencia are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Valencia avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 83% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 77%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 0-1
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.2
Over 2.5
62%
Under 38%
Both teams score
49%
No 51%
Latest games: Tavernes de la Valldigna
Dvs Maracena0-0
D@ Maracena1-1
20:00Low reliability
Home
Xerez
1-1likely
Away
Cádiz
Model2 · Cádiz 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEXerez
VS
AWAYCádiz
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Xerez and 1.9 for Cádiz. Cádiz are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Cádiz57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • XerezXerez defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • XerezXerez attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • CádizCádiz defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • CádizCádiz attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Xerez and 1.9 for Cádiz: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Xerez and 1.9 for Cádiz. Cádiz are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Cádiz avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%

Thursday 29 October

18:00Low reliability
Home
Atlético Baleares
1-1likely
Away
Eldense
Model2 · Eldense 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAtlético Baleares
VS
AWAYEldense
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Atlético Baleares and 1.9 for Eldense. Eldense are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Eldense57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Atlético BalearesAtlético Baleares defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Atlético BalearesAtlético Baleares attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • EldenseEldense defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • EldenseEldense attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Atlético Baleares and 1.9 for Eldense: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Atlético Baleares and 1.9 for Eldense. Eldense are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Eldense avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
18:00Low reliability
Home
Atlético Calatayud
0-2likely
Away
Osasuna
Model2 · Osasuna 73%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAtlético Calatayud
VS
AWAYOsasuna
110%
X17%
273%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Calatayud and 2.5 for Osasuna. Osasuna are favourites even away from home (73%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Osasuna73%
Safer double chanceX290%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Atlético CalatayudAtlético Calatayud defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Atlético CalatayudAtlético Calatayud attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • MatchRecent form: Atlético Calatayud WW, Osasuna – (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
  • OsasunaOsasuna defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Calatayud and 2.5 for Osasuna: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Calatayud and 2.5 for Osasuna. Osasuna are favourites even away from home (73%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Osasuna avoid defeat90%
Safer alternativeX2 · 90%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Atlético Calatayud
W@ CD Baztán1-2
Wvs CD Baztán2-0
18:00Low reliability
Home
San Sebastián de los Reyes
1-1likely
Away
Coria
Model1 · San Sebastián de los Reyes 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESan Sebastián de los Reyes
VS
AWAYCoria
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for San Sebastián de los Reyes and 1.2 for Coria. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · San Sebastián de los Reyes46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CoriaCoria defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • San Sebastián de los ReyesSan Sebastián de los Reyes defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • San Sebastián de los ReyesSan Sebastián de los Reyes attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • CoriaCoria attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for San Sebastián de los Reyes and 1.2 for Coria: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for San Sebastián de los Reyes and 1.2 for Coria. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · San Sebastián de los Reyes avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
18:00Low reliability
Home
UB Lebrijana
0-2likely
Away
Getafe
Model2 · Getafe 72%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEUB Lebrijana
VS
AWAYGetafe
110%
X18%
272%
Expected goals0.7 – 2.3
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-213%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.7 goals for UB Lebrijana and 2.3 for Getafe. Getafe are favourites even away from home (72%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Getafe72%
Safer double chanceX290%
Most likely exact score0-213%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • UB LebrijanaUB Lebrijana defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • UB LebrijanaUB Lebrijana attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • GetafeGetafe defence: concedes 12% less than average.
  • GetafeGetafe attack: scores 8% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.7 goals for UB Lebrijana and 2.3 for Getafe: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.7 goals for UB Lebrijana and 2.3 for Getafe. Getafe are favourites even away from home (72%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Getafe avoid defeat90%
Safer alternativeX2 · 90%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 81% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 74%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 13%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
13% · then 0-1, 0-3
Expected goals
0.7 - 2.3
total 3.0
Over 2.5
58%
Under 42%
Both teams score
47%
No 53%
Latest games: UB Lebrijana
W@ Ceuta 6 de Junio1-2
Wvs Ceuta 6 de Junio5-0
19:00Low reliability
Home
Antequera CF
1-1likely
Away
Aguilas
Model1 · Antequera CF 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAntequera CF
VS
AWAYAguilas
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Antequera CF and 1.2 for Aguilas. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Antequera CF46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • AguilasAguilas defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Antequera CFAntequera CF defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Antequera CFAntequera CF attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • AguilasAguilas attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Antequera CF and 1.2 for Aguilas: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Antequera CF and 1.2 for Aguilas. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Antequera CF avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
19:00Low reliability
Home
CD Laredo
1-1likely
Away
Burgos
Model2 · Burgos 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECD Laredo
VS
AWAYBurgos
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for CD Laredo and 1.9 for Burgos. Burgos are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Burgos57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CD LaredoCD Laredo defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD LaredoCD Laredo attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • BurgosBurgos defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • BurgosBurgos attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for CD Laredo and 1.9 for Burgos: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for CD Laredo and 1.9 for Burgos. Burgos are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Burgos avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
CD Varea
1-1likely
Away
FC Andorra
Model2 · FC Andorra 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECD Varea
VS
AWAYFC Andorra
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for CD Varea and 1.9 for FC Andorra. FC Andorra are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · FC Andorra57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CD VareaCD Varea defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD VareaCD Varea attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • FC AndorraFC Andorra defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • FC AndorraFC Andorra attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for CD Varea and 1.9 for FC Andorra: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for CD Varea and 1.9 for FC Andorra. FC Andorra are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · FC Andorra avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Conquense
1-1likely
Away
Castellón
Model2 · Castellón 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEConquense
VS
AWAYCastellón
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Conquense and 1.9 for Castellón. Castellón are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Castellón57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • ConquenseConquense defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • ConquenseConquense attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • CastellónCastellón defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • CastellónCastellón attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Conquense and 1.9 for Castellón: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Conquense and 1.9 for Castellón. Castellón are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Castellón avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Guijuelo
1-1likely
Away
Sporting Gijón
Model2 · Sporting Gijón 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEGuijuelo
VS
AWAYSporting Gijón
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Guijuelo and 1.9 for Sporting Gijón. Sporting Gijón are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Sporting Gijón57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • GuijueloGuijuelo defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • GuijueloGuijuelo attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Sporting GijónSporting Gijón defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • Sporting GijónSporting Gijón attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Guijuelo and 1.9 for Sporting Gijón: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Guijuelo and 1.9 for Sporting Gijón. Sporting Gijón are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Sporting Gijón avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%
19:00Low reliability
Home
Real Ávila
1-1likely
Away
Unionistas de Salamanca
Model1 · Real Ávila 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEReal Ávila
VS
AWAYUnionistas de Salamanca
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Real Ávila and 1.2 for Unionistas de Salamanca. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Real Ávila46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Unionistas de SalamancaUnionistas de Salamanca defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Real ÁvilaReal Ávila defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Real ÁvilaReal Ávila attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • Unionistas de SalamancaUnionistas de Salamanca attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Real Ávila and 1.2 for Unionistas de Salamanca: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Real Ávila and 1.2 for Unionistas de Salamanca. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Real Ávila avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%
20:00Low reliability
Home
AE Prat
0-2likely
Away
Athletic Club
Model2 · Athletic Club 74%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAE Prat
VS
AWAYAthletic Club
19%
X16%
274%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for AE Prat and 2.5 for Athletic Club. Athletic Club are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Athletic Club74%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • AE PratAE Prat defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AE PratAE Prat attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Athletic ClubAthletic Club defence: concedes 7% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: AE Prat WW, Athletic Club – (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for AE Prat and 2.5 for Athletic Club: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for AE Prat and 2.5 for Athletic Club. Athletic Club are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Athletic Club avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
64%
Under 36%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
Latest games: AE Prat
Wvs CF San Rafael5-0
W@ CF San Rafael1-5
20:00Low reliability
Home
Auriense Cented Academy
0-2likely
Away
Deportivo
Model2 · Deportivo 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAuriense Cented Academy
VS
AWAYDeportivo
19%
X16%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WL
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Auriense Cented Academy and 2.6 for Deportivo. Deportivo are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Deportivo76%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Auriense Cented AcademyAuriense Cented Academy defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Auriense Cented AcademyAuriense Cented Academy attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • DeportivoDeportivo defence: concedes 7% less than average.
  • DeportivoDeportivo attack: scores 3% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Auriense Cented Academy and 2.6 for Deportivo: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Auriense Cented Academy and 2.6 for Deportivo. Deportivo are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Deportivo avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 79%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.6
total 3.3
Over 2.5
64%
Under 36%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
Latest games: Auriense Cented Academy
L@ CD San José1-0
Wvs CD San José2-0
20:00Low reliability
Home
Ribadesella
0-2likely
Away
Racing Santander
Model2 · Racing Santander 75%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMERibadesella
VS
AWAYRacing Santander
110%
X16%
275%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WD
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-210%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.9 goals for Ribadesella and 2.7 for Racing Santander. Racing Santander are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Racing Santander75%
Safer double chanceX290%
Most likely exact score0-210%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • RibadesellaRibadesella defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • RibadesellaRibadesella attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Racing SantanderRacing Santander attack: scores 7% more than the league average.
  • Racing SantanderRacing Santander defence: concedes 6% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.9 goals for Ribadesella and 2.7 for Racing Santander: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.9 goals for Ribadesella and 2.7 for Racing Santander. Racing Santander are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Racing Santander avoid defeat90%
Safer alternativeX2 · 90%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 87% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 80%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
10% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.9 - 2.6
total 3.5
Over 2.5
68%
Under 32%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Ribadesella
D@ SD Noja1-1
Wvs SD Noja1-0
20:00Low reliability
Home
Sporting Hortaleza
0-2likely
Away
Sevilla
Model2 · Sevilla 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESporting Hortaleza
VS
AWAYSevilla
19%
X15%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WD
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting Hortaleza and 2.6 for Sevilla. Sevilla are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Sevilla76%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Sporting HortalezaSporting Hortaleza defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Sporting HortalezaSporting Hortaleza attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • SevillaSevilla attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
  • SevillaSevilla defence: concedes 4% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting Hortaleza and 2.6 for Sevilla: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting Hortaleza and 2.6 for Sevilla. Sevilla are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Sevilla avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 86% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 79%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.6
total 3.4
Over 2.5
66%
Under 34%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Sporting Hortaleza
D@ Atlético Unión Güímar3-3
Wvs Atlético Unión Güímar1-0