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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

UB Lebrijana – Getafe

Copa del Rey · Thursday 29 October 18:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

18:00Low reliability
Home
UB Lebrijana
0-2likely
Away
Getafe
Model2 · Getafe 72%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEUB Lebrijana
VS
AWAYGetafe
110%
X18%
272%
Expected goals0.7 – 2.3
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-213%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.7 goals for UB Lebrijana and 2.3 for Getafe. Getafe are favourites even away from home (72%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Getafe72%
Safer double chanceX290%
Most likely exact score0-213%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • UB LebrijanaUB Lebrijana defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • UB LebrijanaUB Lebrijana attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • GetafeGetafe defence: concedes 12% less than average.
  • GetafeGetafe attack: scores 8% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.7 goals for UB Lebrijana and 2.3 for Getafe: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.7 goals for UB Lebrijana and 2.3 for Getafe. Getafe are favourites even away from home (72%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Getafe avoid defeat90%
Safer alternativeX2 · 90%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 81% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 74%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 13%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
13% · then 0-1, 0-3
Expected goals
0.7 - 2.3
total 3.0
Over 2.5
58%
Under 42%
Both teams score
47%
No 53%
Latest games: UB Lebrijana
W@ Ceuta 6 de Junio1-2
Wvs Ceuta 6 de Junio5-0

All Copa del Rey matches →