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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Manacor – Villarreal

Copa del Rey · Tuesday 27 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Manacor
0-2likely
Away
Villarreal
Model2 · Villarreal 78%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEManacor
VS
AWAYVillarreal
17%
X14%
278%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.7
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Manacor and 2.7 for Villarreal. Villarreal are favourites even away from home (78%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Villarreal78%
Safer double chanceX293%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • ManacorManacor defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • ManacorManacor attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • VillarrealVillarreal attack: scores 10% more than the league average.
  • VillarrealVillarreal defence: concedes 8% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Manacor and 2.7 for Villarreal: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Manacor and 2.7 for Villarreal. Villarreal are favourites even away from home (78%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Villarreal avoid defeat93%
Safer alternativeX2 · 93%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 87% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 81%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.7
total 3.5
Over 2.5
68%
Under 32%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%

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