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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

AE Prat – Athletic Club

Copa del Rey · Thursday 29 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
AE Prat
0-2likely
Away
Athletic Club
Model2 · Athletic Club 74%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAE Prat
VS
AWAYAthletic Club
19%
X16%
274%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for AE Prat and 2.5 for Athletic Club. Athletic Club are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Athletic Club74%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • AE PratAE Prat defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AE PratAE Prat attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Athletic ClubAthletic Club defence: concedes 7% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: AE Prat WW, Athletic Club – (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for AE Prat and 2.5 for Athletic Club: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for AE Prat and 2.5 for Athletic Club. Athletic Club are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Athletic Club avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
64%
Under 36%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
Latest games: AE Prat
Wvs CF San Rafael5-0
W@ CF San Rafael1-5

All Copa del Rey matches →