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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Sporting Hortaleza – Sevilla

Copa del Rey · Thursday 29 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Sporting Hortaleza
0-2likely
Away
Sevilla
Model2 · Sevilla 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESporting Hortaleza
VS
AWAYSevilla
19%
X15%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WD
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting Hortaleza and 2.6 for Sevilla. Sevilla are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Sevilla76%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Sporting HortalezaSporting Hortaleza defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Sporting HortalezaSporting Hortaleza attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • SevillaSevilla attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
  • SevillaSevilla defence: concedes 4% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting Hortaleza and 2.6 for Sevilla: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting Hortaleza and 2.6 for Sevilla. Sevilla are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Sevilla avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 86% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 79%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.6
total 3.4
Over 2.5
66%
Under 34%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%
Latest games: Sporting Hortaleza
D@ Atlético Unión Güímar3-3
Wvs Atlético Unión Güímar1-0

All Copa del Rey matches →