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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Numancia – Real Oviedo

Copa del Rey · Wednesday 28 October 19:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

19:00Low reliability
Home
Numancia
0-2likely
Away
Real Oviedo
Model2 · Real Oviedo 72%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMENumancia
VS
AWAYReal Oviedo
110%
X17%
272%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Numancia and 2.4 for Real Oviedo. Real Oviedo are favourites even away from home (72%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Real Oviedo72%
Safer double chanceX290%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • NumanciaNumancia defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • NumanciaNumancia attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Real OviedoReal Oviedo defence: concedes 5% less than average.
  • Real OviedoReal Oviedo attack: scores 4% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Numancia and 2.4 for Real Oviedo: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Numancia and 2.4 for Real Oviedo. Real Oviedo are favourites even away from home (72%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Real Oviedo avoid defeat90%
Safer alternativeX2 · 90%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 83% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 76%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-1, 0-3
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.4
total 3.2
Over 2.5
61%
Under 39%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%

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