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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Auriense Cented Academy – Deportivo

Copa del Rey · Thursday 29 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Auriense Cented Academy
0-2likely
Away
Deportivo
Model2 · Deportivo 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAuriense Cented Academy
VS
AWAYDeportivo
19%
X16%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WL
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Auriense Cented Academy and 2.6 for Deportivo. Deportivo are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Deportivo76%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Auriense Cented AcademyAuriense Cented Academy defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Auriense Cented AcademyAuriense Cented Academy attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • DeportivoDeportivo defence: concedes 7% less than average.
  • DeportivoDeportivo attack: scores 3% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Auriense Cented Academy and 2.6 for Deportivo: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Auriense Cented Academy and 2.6 for Deportivo. Deportivo are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Deportivo avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 79%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.6
total 3.3
Over 2.5
64%
Under 36%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%
Latest games: Auriense Cented Academy
L@ CD San José1-0
Wvs CD San José2-0

All Copa del Rey matches →