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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Sestao – Espanyol

Copa del Rey · Tuesday 27 October 18:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

18:00Low reliability
Home
Sestao
0-2likely
Away
Espanyol
Model2 · Espanyol 74%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESestao
VS
AWAYEspanyol
19%
X17%
274%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sestao and 2.5 for Espanyol. Espanyol are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Espanyol74%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • SestaoSestao defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • SestaoSestao attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • EspanyolEspanyol defence: concedes 6% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Sestao and 2.5 for Espanyol: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sestao and 2.5 for Espanyol. Espanyol are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Espanyol avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 77%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 0-1
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.2
Over 2.5
63%
Under 37%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%

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