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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Peña Sport – Huesca

Copa del Rey · Wednesday 28 October 18:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

18:00Low reliability
Home
Peña Sport
1-1likely
Away
Huesca
Model1 · Peña Sport 46%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPeña Sport
VS
AWAYHuesca
146%
X25%
228%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for Peña Sport and 1.2 for Huesca. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Peña Sport46%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • HuescaHuesca defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Peña SportPeña Sport defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Peña SportPeña Sport attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • HuescaHuesca attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Peña Sport and 1.2 for Huesca: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for Peña Sport and 1.2 for Huesca. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals79%
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong markets1X · Peña Sport avoid defeat · 72% · Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 2-1, 1-0
Expected goals
1.6 - 1.2
total 2.9
Over 2.5
55%
Under 45%
Both teams score
58%
No 42%

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