CD Varea – FC Andorra: prediction

CD Varea – FC Andorra

Copa del Rey · Thursday 29 October 19:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

19:00Low reliability

Home

CD Varea

1-1likely

Away

FC Andorra

120%X23%257%

Model2 · FC Andorra 57%

Match CenterStatistics only

HOMECD Varea

AWAYFC Andorra

120%

X23%

257%

Expected goals1.1 – 1.9

Reliabilitylow

Home form

no data

Away form

no data

Most likely score1-111%

Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for CD Varea and 1.9 for FC Andorra. FC Andorra are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction

Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · FC Andorra57%

Safer double chanceX280%

Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

CD VareaCD Varea defence: concedes 100% more than average.
CD VareaCD Varea attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
FC AndorraFC Andorra defence: concedes 28% more than average.
FC AndorraFC Andorra attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for CD Varea and 1.9 for FC Andorra: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model's final prediction

Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%

Safer alternativeX2 · 80%

Other strong marketsX2 · FC Andorra avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%

Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score

1-1

11% · then 1-2, 0-2

Expected goals

1.1 - 1.9

total 3.0

Over 2.5

57%

Under 43%

Both teams score

56%

No 44%

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