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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Atlético Calatayud – Osasuna

Copa del Rey · Thursday 29 October 18:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

18:00Low reliability
Home
Atlético Calatayud
0-2likely
Away
Osasuna
Model2 · Osasuna 73%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAtlético Calatayud
VS
AWAYOsasuna
110%
X17%
273%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Calatayud and 2.5 for Osasuna. Osasuna are favourites even away from home (73%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Osasuna73%
Safer double chanceX290%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Atlético CalatayudAtlético Calatayud defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Atlético CalatayudAtlético Calatayud attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • MatchRecent form: Atlético Calatayud WW, Osasuna – (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
  • OsasunaOsasuna defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Calatayud and 2.5 for Osasuna: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Atlético Calatayud and 2.5 for Osasuna. Osasuna are favourites even away from home (73%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Osasuna avoid defeat90%
Safer alternativeX2 · 90%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Atlético Calatayud
W@ CD Baztán1-2
Wvs CD Baztán2-0

All Copa del Rey matches →