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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Recreativo Huelva – Rayo Vallecano

Copa del Rey · Tuesday 27 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Recreativo Huelva
0-2likely
Away
Rayo Vallecano
Model2 · Rayo Vallecano 75%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMERecreativo Huelva
VS
AWAYRayo Vallecano
19%
X16%
275%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Recreativo Huelva and 2.5 for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Rayo Vallecano75%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Recreativo HuelvaRecreativo Huelva defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Recreativo HuelvaRecreativo Huelva attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano defence: concedes 4% less than average.
  • Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano attack: scores 3% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Recreativo Huelva and 2.5 for Rayo Vallecano: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Recreativo Huelva and 2.5 for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Rayo Vallecano avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
51%
No 49%

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