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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Ribadesella – Racing Santander

Copa del Rey · Thursday 29 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Ribadesella
0-2likely
Away
Racing Santander
Model2 · Racing Santander 75%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMERibadesella
VS
AWAYRacing Santander
110%
X16%
275%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WD
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-210%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.9 goals for Ribadesella and 2.7 for Racing Santander. Racing Santander are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Racing Santander75%
Safer double chanceX290%
Most likely exact score0-210%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • RibadesellaRibadesella defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • RibadesellaRibadesella attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Racing SantanderRacing Santander attack: scores 7% more than the league average.
  • Racing SantanderRacing Santander defence: concedes 6% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.9 goals for Ribadesella and 2.7 for Racing Santander: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.9 goals for Ribadesella and 2.7 for Racing Santander. Racing Santander are favourites even away from home (75%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Racing Santander avoid defeat90%
Safer alternativeX2 · 90%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 87% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 80%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
10% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.9 - 2.6
total 3.5
Over 2.5
68%
Under 32%
Both teams score
55%
No 45%
Latest games: Ribadesella
D@ SD Noja1-1
Wvs SD Noja1-0

All Copa del Rey matches →