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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

CD Tarancon – Levante

Copa del Rey · Wednesday 28 October 18:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

18:00Low reliability
Home
CD Tarancon
0-2likely
Away
Levante
Model2 · Levante 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMECD Tarancon
VS
AWAYLevante
18%
X15%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.7
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for CD Tarancon and 2.7 for Levante. Levante are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Levante76%
Safer double chanceX292%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • CD TaranconCD Tarancon defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • CD TaranconCD Tarancon attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • LevanteLevante attack: scores 8% more than the league average.
  • LevanteLevante defence: concedes 2% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for CD Tarancon and 2.7 for Levante: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for CD Tarancon and 2.7 for Levante. Levante are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Levante avoid defeat92%
Safer alternativeX2 · 92%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 86% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 80%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.7
total 3.5
Over 2.5
67%
Under 33%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%

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