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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Salamanca UDS – Celta Vigo

Copa del Rey · Wednesday 28 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Salamanca UDS
0-2likely
Away
Celta Vigo
Model2 · Celta Vigo 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESalamanca UDS
VS
AWAYCelta Vigo
18%
X16%
276%
Expected goals0.7 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.7 goals for Salamanca UDS and 2.5 for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Celta Vigo76%
Safer double chanceX292%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Salamanca UDSSalamanca UDS defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Salamanca UDSSalamanca UDS attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Celta VigoCelta Vigo defence: concedes 11% less than average.
  • Celta VigoCelta Vigo attack: scores 3% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.7 goals for Salamanca UDS and 2.5 for Celta Vigo: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.7 goals for Salamanca UDS and 2.5 for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Celta Vigo avoid defeat92%
Safer alternativeX2 · 92%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 78%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 0-1
Expected goals
0.7 - 2.5
total 3.3
Over 2.5
64%
Under 36%
Both teams score
48%
No 52%

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