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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Alcoyano – Mallorca

Copa del Rey · Wednesday 28 October 19:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

19:00Low reliability
Home
Alcoyano
0-2likely
Away
Mallorca
Model2 · Mallorca 76%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAlcoyano
VS
AWAYMallorca
19%
X16%
276%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Alcoyano and 2.6 for Mallorca. Mallorca are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Mallorca76%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • AlcoyanoAlcoyano defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • AlcoyanoAlcoyano attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • MallorcaMallorca defence: concedes 5% less than average.
  • MallorcaMallorca attack: scores 5% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Alcoyano and 2.6 for Mallorca: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Alcoyano and 2.6 for Mallorca. Mallorca are favourites even away from home (76%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Mallorca avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 85% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 79%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 1-2
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.6
total 3.4
Over 2.5
65%
Under 35%
Both teams score
50%
No 50%

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