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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Guijuelo – Sporting Gijón

Copa del Rey · Thursday 29 October 19:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

19:00Low reliability
Home
Guijuelo
1-1likely
Away
Sporting Gijón
Model2 · Sporting Gijón 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEGuijuelo
VS
AWAYSporting Gijón
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Guijuelo and 1.9 for Sporting Gijón. Sporting Gijón are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Sporting Gijón57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • GuijueloGuijuelo defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • GuijueloGuijuelo attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • Sporting GijónSporting Gijón defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • Sporting GijónSporting Gijón attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Guijuelo and 1.9 for Sporting Gijón: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Guijuelo and 1.9 for Sporting Gijón. Sporting Gijón are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Sporting Gijón avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%

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