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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Poblense – Ceuta

Copa del Rey · Wednesday 28 October 18:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

18:00Low reliability
Home
Poblense
1-1likely
Away
Ceuta
Model2 · Ceuta 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPoblense
VS
AWAYCeuta
120%
X23%
257%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
no data
Away form
no data
Most likely score1-111%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Poblense and 1.9 for Ceuta. Ceuta are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Ceuta57%
Safer double chanceX280%
Most likely exact score1-111%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • PoblensePoblense defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • PoblensePoblense attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • CeutaCeuta defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • CeutaCeuta attack: scores 22% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Poblense and 1.9 for Ceuta: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Poblense and 1.9 for Ceuta. Ceuta are favourites even away from home (57%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals80%
Safer alternativeX2 · 80%
Other strong marketsX2 · Ceuta avoid defeat · 80% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 65%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
11% · then 1-2, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 1.9
total 3.0
Over 2.5
57%
Under 43%
Both teams score
56%
No 44%

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