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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Tavernes de la Valldigna – Valencia

Copa del Rey · Wednesday 28 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Tavernes de la Valldigna
0-2likely
Away
Valencia
Model2 · Valencia 74%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMETavernes de la Valldigna
VS
AWAYValencia
19%
X17%
274%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
DD
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-212%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Tavernes de la Valldigna and 2.4 for Valencia. Valencia are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Valencia74%
Safer double chanceX291%
Most likely exact score0-212%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Tavernes de la ValldignaTavernes de la Valldigna defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Tavernes de la ValldignaTavernes de la Valldigna attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • ValenciaValencia defence: concedes 5% less than average.
  • ValenciaValencia attack: scores 1% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Tavernes de la Valldigna and 2.4 for Valencia: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Tavernes de la Valldigna and 2.4 for Valencia. Valencia are favourites even away from home (74%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Valencia avoid defeat91%
Safer alternativeX2 · 91%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 83% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 77%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
12% · then 0-3, 0-1
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.5
total 3.2
Over 2.5
62%
Under 38%
Both teams score
49%
No 51%
Latest games: Tavernes de la Valldigna
Dvs Maracena0-0
D@ Maracena1-1

All Copa del Rey matches →