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Copa del Rey · round 1

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Sporting de Alcázar – Málaga

Copa del Rey · Tuesday 27 October 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Sporting de Alcázar
0-2likely
Away
Málaga
Model2 · Málaga 71%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESporting de Alcázar
VS
AWAYMálaga
111%
X18%
271%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WW
Away form
no data
Most likely score0-211%
Why this outcome

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting de Alcázar and 2.4 for Málaga. Málaga are favourites even away from home (71%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Málaga71%
Safer double chanceX289%
Most likely exact score0-211%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • Sporting de AlcázarSporting de Alcázar defence: concedes 100% more than average.
  • Sporting de AlcázarSporting de Alcázar attack: scores 50% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 33% more than the away side.
  • MálagaMálaga attack: scores 3% less than the league average.
  • MatchRecent form: Sporting de Alcázar WW, Málaga – (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting de Alcázar and 2.4 for Málaga: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 0.8 goals for Sporting de Alcázar and 2.4 for Málaga. Málaga are favourites even away from home (71%). For teams outside LaLiga the model does not have enough data: it starts from a cautious base strength (Segunda División or amateur levels), so this estimate is less reliable.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Málaga avoid defeat89%
Safer alternativeX2 · 89%
Other strong marketsOver 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 84% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 76%
Most likely exact score0-2 · 11%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
0-2
11% · then 1-2, 0-1
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.4
total 3.2
Over 2.5
63%
Under 37%
Both teams score
52%
No 48%
Latest games: Sporting de Alcázar
Wvs CP Talayuela1-0
W@ CP Talayuela1-2

All Copa del Rey matches →