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Serie A · matchday 9

Real dataAI analysis onUpdated 26/10 08:39

Fiorentina – Atalanta

Serie A · Thursday 29 October 19:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

19:45Low reliability
Home
Fiorentina
1-1likely
Away
Atalanta
Model2 · Atalanta 44%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEFiorentina
VS
AWAYAtalanta
130%
X26%
244%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LWDLL
Away form
LLLWL
Most likely score1-112%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.2 goals for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Atalanta. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Atalanta44%
Safer double chanceX270%
Most likely exact score1-112%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • FiorentinaFiorentina defence: concedes 15% more than average.
  • FiorentinaFiorentina attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
  • AtalantaAtalanta defence: concedes 7% less than average.
  • AtalantaAtalanta attack: scores 4% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.2 goals for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Atalanta: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.2 goals for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Atalanta. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Atalanta avoid defeat70%
League average for this market60% · +11 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 70%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 72% · X2 · Atalanta avoid defeat · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 12%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
12% · then 0-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.2 - 1.5
total 2.7
Over 2.5
50%
Under 50%
Both teams score
53%
No 47%
Latest games: Fiorentina
Lvs Como 19071-3
L@ Genoa2-1
Dvs Napoli1-1
W@ Venezia FC2-4
Lvs Torino1-2
Latest games: Atalanta
L@ Milan3-2
Wvs Venezia FC3-1
L@ Juventus2-0
Lvs Cagliari1-2
L@ Roma2-1
Latest head-to-heads
22/05/26Fiorentina – Atalanta1-1
30/11/25Atalanta – Fiorentina2-0

All Serie A matches →