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Tuesday 27 October
17:30Medium reliabilityHomeSassuolo1-1likelyAwayLazioModel2 · Lazio 48%
The latest news was checked: no unavailable player was confirmed, so the probabilities stay those of the statistical model.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- LazioLazio defence: concedes 22% less than average.
- SassuoloSassuolo defence: concedes 11% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- LazioLazio attack: scores 8% more than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: Sassuolo WLDLL, Lazio DWWWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Sassuolo and 1.6 for Lazio: the probability of every score comes from here.
The latest news was checked: no unavailable player was confirmed, so the probabilities stay those of the statistical model.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45High reliabilityHomeRoma1-0likelyAwayCagliariAdjusted for absences3 confirmed absencesModel1 · Roma 64%
Absences confirmed by sources — Roma: Svilar, Koné, Pellegrini. The model's expected goals are adjusted only for these players.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- RomaRoma attack: scores 36% more than the league average.
- RomaRoma defence: concedes 28% less than average.
- CagliariCagliari attack: scores 24% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- CagliariCagliari defence: concedes 4% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Roma and 0.7 for Cagliari: the probability of every score comes from here.
Absences confirmed by sources — Roma: Svilar, Koné, Pellegrini. The model's expected goals are adjusted only for these players.
Absences confirmed by sources
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45Medium reliabilityHomeTorino1-1likelyAwayComo 1907Adjusted for absences4 confirmed absencesModel2 · Como 1907 52%
Absences confirmed by sources — Torino: Fortini, Israel, Rodriguez; Como 1907: Jesus Rodriguez. The model's expected goals are adjusted only for these players.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Como 1907Como 1907 defence: concedes 29% less than average.
- Como 1907Como 1907 attack: scores 22% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- TorinoTorino defence: concedes 7% more than average.
- TorinoTorino attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.0 goals for Torino and 1.6 for Como 1907: the probability of every score comes from here.
Absences confirmed by sources — Torino: Fortini, Israel, Rodriguez; Como 1907: Jesus Rodriguez. The model's expected goals are adjusted only for these players.
Absences confirmed by sources
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Wednesday 28 October
17:30Medium reliabilityHomeMilan1-1likelyAwayBolognaModel1 · Milan 48%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Milan and 1.0 for Bologna. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MilanMilan defence: concedes 16% less than average.
- MilanMilan attack: scores 12% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- BolognaBologna defence: concedes 8% less than average.
- BolognaBologna attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Milan and 1.0 for Bologna: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Milan and 1.0 for Bologna. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:30High reliabilityHomeVenezia FC1-2likelyAwayInterModel2 · Inter 74%
The model expects 1.0 goals for Venezia FC and 2.8 for Inter. Inter are favourites even away from home (74%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- InterInter attack: scores 67% more than the league average.
- Venezia FCVenezia FC defence: concedes 28% more than average.
- Venezia FCVenezia FC attack: scores 15% less than the league average.
- InterInter defence: concedes 12% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.0 goals for Venezia FC and 2.8 for Inter: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.0 goals for Venezia FC and 2.8 for Inter. Inter are favourites even away from home (74%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
17:30Low reliabilityHomeParma1-1likelyAwayUdineseModel2 · Udinese 40%
The model expects 1.0 goals for Parma and 1.2 for Udinese. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- ParmaParma attack: scores 33% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- UdineseUdinese defence: concedes 10% more than average.
- UdineseUdinese attack: scores 5% less than the league average.
- ParmaParma defence: concedes 3% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.0 goals for Parma and 1.2 for Udinese: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.0 goals for Parma and 1.2 for Udinese. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45Medium reliabilityHomeGenoa0-1likelyAwayJuventusModel2 · Juventus 47%
The model expects 0.9 goals for Genoa and 1.4 for Juventus. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- GenoaGenoa attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
- JuventusJuventus defence: concedes 16% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- JuventusJuventus attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
- GenoaGenoa defence: concedes 5% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 0.9 goals for Genoa and 1.4 for Juventus: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 0.9 goals for Genoa and 1.4 for Juventus. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45Medium reliabilityHomeMonza1-1likelyAwayNapoliModel2 · Napoli 48%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Monza and 1.9 for Napoli. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MonzaMonza defence: concedes 31% more than average.
- MonzaMonza attack: scores 23% more than the league average.
- NapoliNapoli defence: concedes 16% less than average.
- NapoliNapoli attack: scores 14% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Monza and 1.9 for Napoli: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Monza and 1.9 for Napoli. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Thursday 29 October
17:30Medium reliabilityHomeFrosinone1-1likelyAwayLecceModel1 · Frosinone 54%
The model expects 1.8 goals for Frosinone and 1.0 for Lecce. Frosinone start as favourites (54%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- FrosinoneFrosinone attack: scores 18% more than the league average.
- LecceLecce attack: scores 17% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- LecceLecce defence: concedes 3% more than average.
- MatchRecent form: Frosinone WDWLW, Lecce LWLLW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Frosinone and 1.0 for Lecce: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.8 goals for Frosinone and 1.0 for Lecce. Frosinone start as favourites (54%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45Low reliabilityHomeFiorentina1-1likelyAwayAtalantaModel2 · Atalanta 44%
The model expects 1.2 goals for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Atalanta. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- FiorentinaFiorentina defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- FiorentinaFiorentina attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- AtalantaAtalanta defence: concedes 7% less than average.
- AtalantaAtalanta attack: scores 4% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.2 goals for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Atalanta: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.2 goals for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Atalanta. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.
Matchday 8
Matchday 10
Already played
Last 18 predicted matches: outcome right 12 times out of 18.