Roma – Cagliari
Serie A · Tuesday 27 October 19:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
19:45High reliabilityHomeRoma1-0likelyAwayCagliariAdjusted for absences3 confirmed absencesModel1 · Roma 64%
Home
Roma
1-0likely
Away
Cagliari
Match CenterAI + statistics
164%
X22%
214%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.7
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WDDWD
Away form
WWDLL
Most likely score1-015%
Why this outcome
Absences confirmed by sources — Roma: Svilar, Koné, Pellegrini. The model's expected goals are adjusted only for these players.
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Roma64%
Safer double chance1X86%
Most likely exact score1-015%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- RomaRoma attack: scores 36% more than the league average.
- RomaRoma defence: concedes 28% less than average.
- CagliariCagliari attack: scores 24% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 11% more than the away side.
- CagliariCagliari defence: concedes 4% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Roma and 0.7 for Cagliari: the probability of every score comes from here.
Analysis with the latest news
Absences confirmed by sources — Roma: Svilar, Koné, Pellegrini. The model's expected goals are adjusted only for these players.
Absences confirmed by sources
Roma: Svilar, Koné, Pellegrini
Adjusted expected goals: Roma 1.88 → 1.81
Every absence listed is confirmed by the text of at least one of these articles.
Roma, Gasperini prepara la sfida contro il CagliariRoma–Cagliari: come seguire la partita.AS Roma vs Cagliari Calcio - October 27, 2026Cagliari, subito al lavoro dopo il ko: Pisacane prepara la Roma - Cagliaripad.it | Notizie della Sardegna in tempo reale
The model's final prediction
1 · Roma win64%
League average for this market40% · +23 points
Safer alternative1X · 86%
Other strong marketsUnder 3.5 · at most 3 goals · 76% · Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 72%
Most likely exact score1-0 · 15%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-0
15% · then 2-0, 1-1
Expected goals
1.8 - 0.7
total 2.5
Over 2.5
46%
Under 54%
Both teams score
42%
No 58%
Latest games: Roma
D@ Napoli3-3
Wvs Genoa2-0
D@ Como 19070-0
Dvs Inter2-2
W@ Torino0-2
Latest games: Cagliari
Lvs Bologna0-2
L@ Monza4-0
Dvs Juventus1-1
W@ Udinese0-1
W@ Atalanta1-2
Latest head-to-heads
09/02/26Roma – Cagliari2-0
07/12/25Cagliari – Roma1-0