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Champions League · matchday 4

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Galatasaray – Stuttgart

Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

17:45Low reliability
Home
Galatasaray
1-1likely
Away
Stuttgart
Model2 · Stuttgart 41%
Match CenterStatistics only
137%
X22%
241%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LLW
Away form
WWD
Most likely score1-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.8 goals for Galatasaray and 1.9 for Stuttgart. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Stuttgart41%
Safer double chanceX263%
Most likely exact score1-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • StuttgartStuttgart defence: concedes 16% less than average.
  • GalatasarayGalatasaray defence: concedes 13% more than average.
  • GalatasarayGalatasaray attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
  • StuttgartStuttgart attack: scores 6% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Galatasaray and 1.9 for Stuttgart: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.8 goals for Galatasaray and 1.9 for Stuttgart. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.556%
League average for this market40% · +16 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 63%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 71% · Both teams score · 71%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
9% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.9
total 3.7
Over 2.5
71%
Under 29%
Both teams score
71%
No 29%
Latest games: Galatasaray
W@ Lille2-4
Lvs Barça1-4
L@ Sporting CP3-1
Latest games: Stuttgart
Dvs Atleti1-1
W@ Sl. Bratislava0-3
Wvs Viking3-1

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