| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 | Barça | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 9 | Como 1907 | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 10 | Man City | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 | Dortmund | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern | 3 | +5 | 5 |
| 15 | Roma | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 16 | Atleti | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Man United | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | LASK | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FK | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | RC Lens | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodø/Glimt | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 | PAE AEK | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 | Porto | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Sl. Bratislava | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Blue bar: top four. Red bar: bottom three. Tap a team to open its page.
How the season could end
The model played the 90 remaining matches 5,000 times, starting from today's table. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference and goals scored (not head-to-head). These are probabilities, not certainties.
| Team | Avg. pos. | Top 8 (last 16) | 9th–24th (play-offs) | Eliminated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 4.6 | 86% | 14% | <1% |
| Real Madrid | 4.8 | 85% | 15% | <1% |
| PSG | 5.5 | 79% | 21% | <1% |
| Aston Villa | 5.7 | 78% | 22% | <1% |
| Arsenal | 6.0 | 75% | 24% | <1% |
| Barça | 8.5 | 58% | 41% | 1% |
| Stuttgart | 9.1 | 53% | 45% | 1% |
| Real Betis | 10.0 | 45% | 53% | 1% |
| Bayern | 11.0 | 38% | 59% | 3% |
| Man City | 12.0 | 34% | 62% | 4% |
| Como 1907 | 12.4 | 31% | 65% | 4% |
| Atleti | 12.9 | 28% | 66% | 5% |
| Dortmund | 13.9 | 22% | 72% | 6% |
| Club Brugge | 15.9 | 16% | 72% | 12% |
| Roma | 16.7 | 12% | 73% | 14% |
| Villarreal | 17.9 | 10% | 70% | 20% |
| Sporting CP | 18.4 | 9% | 70% | 21% |
| Shaktar | 18.4 | 9% | 69% | 22% |
| Man United | 20.2 | 5% | 65% | 30% |
| LASK | 20.8 | 3% | 66% | 31% |
| Inter | 20.9 | 4% | 62% | 34% |
| Napoli | 21.3 | 3% | 62% | 35% |
| RB Leipzig | 21.4 | 3% | 61% | 36% |
| PSV | 22.1 | 3% | 57% | 40% |
| Feyenoord | 22.2 | 3% | 57% | 40% |
| Bodø/Glimt | 22.8 | 3% | 53% | 44% |
| Galatasaray | 24.9 | 1% | 43% | 56% |
| RC Lens | 25.3 | 1% | 39% | 60% |
| Viking | 26.5 | <1% | 34% | 66% |
| PAE AEK | 27.7 | <1% | 25% | 75% |
| Sabah FK | 28.4 | <1% | 21% | 78% |
| Fenerbahçe | 30.7 | <1% | 11% | 89% |
| Porto | 31.2 | <1% | 9% | 91% |
| Slavia Praha | 31.4 | <1% | 9% | 91% |
| Lille | 32.0 | <1% | 7% | 93% |
| Sl. Bratislava | 32.6 | 0% | 6% | 94% |