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Fischietto finale

Champions League · matchday 4

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41
Clearest prediction of the round
LASK
67%
X
16%
Sl. Bratislava
16%
Likely score 2-1Model prediction 1X + Over 1.5 · 78%
Open the analysis

Tap a match to open the details. There you can also make your own prediction and challenge the model: My predictions →

Tuesday 3 November

17:45Medium reliability
Home
Shaktar
1-1likely
Away
Sporting CP
Model1 · Shaktar 48%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEShaktar
VS
AWAYSporting CP
148%
X23%
229%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.4
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
DWL
Away form
WWL
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.9 goals for Shaktar and 1.4 for Sporting CP. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Shaktar48%
Safer double chance1X71%
Most likely exact score1-110%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • ShaktarShaktar attack: scores 15% less than the league average.
  • Sporting CPSporting CP attack: scores 8% less than the league average.
  • Sporting CPSporting CP defence: concedes 5% less than average.
  • ShaktarShaktar defence: concedes 3% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Shaktar and 1.4 for Sporting CP: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.9 goals for Shaktar and 1.4 for Sporting CP. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Under 3.5 · at most 3 goals58%
League average for this market51% · +8 points
Safer alternative1X · 71%
Other strong markets1X · Shaktar avoid defeat · 71% · Both teams score · 64%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.4
total 3.3
Over 2.5
64%
Under 36%
Both teams score
64%
No 36%
Latest games: Shaktar
L@ Inter1-0
Wvs PAE AEK3-1
D@ PSV1-1
Latest games: Sporting CP
Lvs LASK2-3
W@ RC Lens0-2
Wvs Galatasaray3-1
17:45Low reliability
Home
Galatasaray
1-1likely
Away
Stuttgart
Model2 · Stuttgart 41%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEGalatasaray
VS
AWAYStuttgart
137%
X22%
241%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LLW
Away form
WWD
Most likely score1-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.8 goals for Galatasaray and 1.9 for Stuttgart. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Stuttgart41%
Safer double chanceX263%
Most likely exact score1-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • StuttgartStuttgart defence: concedes 16% less than average.
  • GalatasarayGalatasaray defence: concedes 13% more than average.
  • GalatasarayGalatasaray attack: scores 7% less than the league average.
  • StuttgartStuttgart attack: scores 6% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Galatasaray and 1.9 for Stuttgart: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.8 goals for Galatasaray and 1.9 for Stuttgart. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.556%
League average for this market40% · +16 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 63%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 71% · Both teams score · 71%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
9% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.9
total 3.7
Over 2.5
71%
Under 29%
Both teams score
71%
No 29%
Latest games: Galatasaray
W@ Lille2-4
Lvs Barça1-4
L@ Sporting CP3-1
Latest games: Stuttgart
Dvs Atleti1-1
W@ Sl. Bratislava0-3
Wvs Viking3-1
20:00Low reliability
Home
Feyenoord
1-1likely
Away
Inter
Model1 · Feyenoord 41%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEFeyenoord
VS
AWAYInter
141%
X22%
237%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.8
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LWL
Away form
LLW
Most likely score1-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.9 goals for Feyenoord and 1.8 for Inter. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Feyenoord41%
Safer double chance1X63%
Most likely exact score1-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • FeyenoordFeyenoord attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
  • InterInter defence: concedes 7% less than average.
  • FeyenoordFeyenoord defence: concedes 7% more than average.
  • InterInter attack: scores 6% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Feyenoord and 1.8 for Inter: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.9 goals for Feyenoord and 1.8 for Inter. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.552%
League average for this market40% · +12 points
Safer alternative1X · 63%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 71% · Both teams score · 71%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
9% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.8
total 3.7
Over 2.5
71%
Under 29%
Both teams score
71%
No 29%
Latest games: Feyenoord
L@ Real Betis1-0
Wvs Como 19073-2
L@ Barça5-1
Latest games: Inter
Wvs Shaktar1-0
Lvs Club Brugge3-4
L@ Real Madrid2-1
20:00High reliability
Home
Barça
2-1likely
Away
Aston Villa
Model1 · Barça 59%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEBarça
VS
AWAYAston Villa
159%
X18%
224%
Expected goals2.8 – 1.8
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WWL
Away form
WWW
Most likely score2-17%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.8 goals for Barça and 1.8 for Aston Villa. Barça start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Barça59%
Safer double chance1X76%
Most likely exact score2-17%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • BarçaBarça attack: scores 42% more than the league average.
  • Aston VillaAston Villa attack: scores 25% more than the league average.
  • Aston VillaAston Villa defence: concedes 16% less than average.
  • BarçaBarça defence: concedes 12% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.8 goals for Barça and 1.8 for Aston Villa: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.8 goals for Barça and 1.8 for Aston Villa. Barça start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Both score + Over 2.573%
League average for this market54% · +19 points
Safer alternative1X · 76%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 83% · Both teams score · 78%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 7%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
7% · then 3-1, 2-2
Expected goals
2.8 - 1.8
total 4.6
Over 2.5
83%
Under 17%
Both teams score
78%
No 22%
Latest games: Barça
L@ PSG4-2
W@ Galatasaray1-4
Wvs Feyenoord5-1
Latest games: Aston Villa
Wvs Viking3-1
Wvs Fenerbahçe6-0
W@ Club Brugge2-3
20:00Medium reliability
Home
Atleti
2-1likely
Away
Bayern
Model1 · Atleti 49%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEAtleti
VS
AWAYBayern
149%
X21%
231%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.7
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
LWD
Away form
WDD
Most likely score2-18%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.1 goals for Atleti and 1.7 for Bayern. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Atleti49%
Safer double chance1X69%
Most likely exact score2-18%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • BayernBayern attack: scores 41% more than the league average.
  • AtletiAtleti defence: concedes 24% less than average.
  • BayernBayern defence: concedes 12% less than average.
  • AtletiAtleti attack: scores 6% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Atleti and 1.7 for Bayern: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.1 goals for Atleti and 1.7 for Bayern. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Both teams score72%
League average for this market59% · +13 points
Safer alternative1X · 69%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 74% · Both teams score · 72%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
8% · then 1-1, 2-2
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.7
total 3.8
Over 2.5
74%
Under 26%
Both teams score
72%
No 28%
Latest games: Atleti
D@ Stuttgart1-1
Wvs Man United2-0
L@ Liverpool2-1
Latest games: Bayern
Dvs Arsenal2-2
D@ Viking3-3
Wvs Bodø/Glimt5-0
20:00Low reliability
Home
Villarreal
2-2likely
Away
PSG
Model2 · PSG 43%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEVillarreal
VS
AWAYPSG
138%
X19%
243%
Expected goals2.2 – 2.4
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LWL
Away form
WWW
Most likely score2-27%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.2 goals for Villarreal and 2.3 for PSG. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · PSG43%
Safer double chanceX262%
Most likely exact score2-27%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • PSGPSG attack: scores 41% more than the league average.
  • PSGPSG defence: concedes 13% less than average.
  • VillarrealVillarreal attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
  • VillarrealVillarreal defence: concedes 3% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.2 goals for Villarreal and 2.3 for PSG: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.2 goals for Villarreal and 2.3 for PSG. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Both teams score81%
League average for this market59% · +22 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 62%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 83% · Both teams score · 81%
Most likely exact score2-2 · 7%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-2
7% · then 1-2, 2-1
Expected goals
2.2 - 2.4
total 4.6
Over 2.5
83%
Under 17%
Both teams score
81%
No 19%
Latest games: Villarreal
L@ Liverpool4-3
Wvs Napoli3-1
L@ Dortmund3-2
Latest games: PSG
Wvs Barça4-2
W@ Man City2-4
Wvs Sl. Bratislava6-1
20:00Medium reliability
Home
Man United
2-1likely
Away
Roma
Model1 · Man United 51%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEMan United
VS
AWAYRoma
151%
X20%
228%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.7
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WLL
Away form
DLW
Most likely score2-18%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.3 goals for Man United and 1.7 for Roma. Man United start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Man United51%
Safer double chance1X72%
Most likely exact score2-18%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • RomaRoma attack: scores 15% more than the league average.
  • RomaRoma defence: concedes 9% less than average.
  • Man UnitedMan United attack: scores 8% more than the league average.
  • Man UnitedMan United defence: concedes 8% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.3 goals for Man United and 1.7 for Roma: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.3 goals for Man United and 1.7 for Roma. Man United start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Both teams score73%
League average for this market59% · +14 points
Safer alternative1X · 72%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 75% · Both teams score · 73%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
8% · then 1-1, 2-2
Expected goals
2.3 - 1.7
total 3.9
Over 2.5
75%
Under 25%
Both teams score
73%
No 27%
Latest games: Man United
L@ Como 19074-1
L@ Atleti2-0
Wvs Sabah FK4-0
Latest games: Roma
Wvs Sl. Bratislava4-0
Lvs Real Madrid3-4
D@ Fenerbahçe1-1
20:00High reliability
Home
Bodø/Glimt
2-1likely
Away
Lille
Model1 · Bodø/Glimt 57%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEBodø/Glimt
VS
AWAYLille
157%
X19%
223%
Expected goals2.4 – 1.5
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LWL
Away form
LLL
Most likely score2-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.4 goals for Bodø/Glimt and 1.5 for Lille. Bodø/Glimt start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Bodø/Glimt57%
Safer double chance1X77%
Most likely exact score2-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • LilleLille defence: concedes 14% more than average.
  • LilleLille attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
  • Bodø/GlimtBodø/Glimt defence: concedes 11% more than average.
  • Bodø/GlimtBodø/Glimt attack: scores 8% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.4 goals for Bodø/Glimt and 1.5 for Lille: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.4 goals for Bodø/Glimt and 1.5 for Lille. Bodø/Glimt start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
1X + Over 1.570%
League average for this market58% · +12 points
Safer alternative1X · 77%
Other strong markets1X · Bodø/Glimt avoid defeat · 77% · Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 75%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
9% · then 1-1, 3-1
Expected goals
2.4 - 1.5
total 3.9
Over 2.5
75%
Under 25%
Both teams score
71%
No 29%
Latest games: Bodø/Glimt
L@ Napoli4-3
Wvs Dortmund1-0
L@ Bayern5-0
Latest games: Lille
Lvs Galatasaray2-4
L@ Arsenal3-0
Lvs Real Betis2-3
20:00High reliability
Home
LASK
2-1likely
Away
Sl. Bratislava
Model1 · LASK 67%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMELASK
VS
AWAYSl. Bratislava
167%
X16%
216%
Expected goals2.8 – 1.4
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LLW
Away form
LLL
Most likely score2-18%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.8 goals for LASK and 1.4 for Sl. Bratislava. LASK start as favourites (67%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · LASK67%
Safer double chance1X84%
Most likely exact score2-18%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • Sl. BratislavaSl. Bratislava defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • Sl. BratislavaSl. Bratislava attack: scores 25% less than the league average.
  • LASKLASK defence: concedes 22% more than average.
  • LASKLASK attack: scores 3% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.8 goals for LASK and 1.4 for Sl. Bratislava: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.8 goals for LASK and 1.4 for Sl. Bratislava. LASK start as favourites (67%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
1X + Over 1.578%
League average for this market58% · +20 points
Safer alternative1X · 84%
Other strong markets1X · LASK avoid defeat · 84% · Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 79%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
8% · then 3-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.8 - 1.4
total 4.2
Over 2.5
79%
Under 21%
Both teams score
71%
No 29%
Latest games: LASK
W@ Sporting CP2-3
Lvs Liverpool3-6
L@ PAE AEK1-0
Latest games: Sl. Bratislava
L@ Roma4-0
Lvs Stuttgart0-3
L@ PSG6-1

Wednesday 4 November

17:45High reliability
Home
PAE AEK
1-2likely
Away
Real Madrid
Model2 · Real Madrid 56%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPAE AEK
VS
AWAYReal Madrid
125%
X19%
256%
Expected goals1.6 – 2.4
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WLL
Away form
WWW
Most likely score1-28%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for PAE AEK and 2.4 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid are favourites even away from home (56%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Real Madrid56%
Safer double chanceX275%
Most likely exact score1-28%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • Real MadridReal Madrid attack: scores 29% more than the league average.
  • PAE AEKPAE AEK attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
  • PAE AEKPAE AEK defence: concedes 17% more than average.
  • Real MadridReal Madrid defence: concedes 15% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for PAE AEK and 2.4 for Real Madrid: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for PAE AEK and 2.4 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid are favourites even away from home (56%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.569%
League average for this market40% · +30 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 75%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 77% · X2 · Real Madrid avoid defeat · 75%
Most likely exact score1-2 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-2
8% · then 1-1, 1-3
Expected goals
1.6 - 2.4
total 4.0
Over 2.5
77%
Under 23%
Both teams score
73%
No 27%
Latest games: PAE AEK
L@ Man City5-1
L@ Shaktar3-1
Wvs LASK1-0
Latest games: Real Madrid
Wvs RB Leipzig4-1
W@ Roma3-4
Wvs Inter2-1
17:45High reliability
Home
Fenerbahçe
1-2likely
Away
Liverpool
Model2 · Liverpool 56%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEFenerbahçe
VS
AWAYLiverpool
125%
X19%
256%
Expected goals1.6 – 2.5
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
DLD
Away form
WWW
Most likely score1-28%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.7 goals for Fenerbahçe and 2.5 for Liverpool. Liverpool are favourites even away from home (56%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Liverpool56%
Safer double chanceX275%
Most likely exact score1-28%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • LiverpoolLiverpool attack: scores 26% more than the league average.
  • FenerbahçeFenerbahçe defence: concedes 22% more than average.
  • FenerbahçeFenerbahçe attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
  • LiverpoolLiverpool defence: concedes 9% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.7 goals for Fenerbahçe and 2.5 for Liverpool: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.7 goals for Fenerbahçe and 2.5 for Liverpool. Liverpool are favourites even away from home (56%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.570%
League average for this market40% · +30 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 75%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 78% · X2 · Liverpool avoid defeat · 75%
Most likely exact score1-2 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-2
8% · then 1-3, 2-2
Expected goals
1.6 - 2.5
total 4.1
Over 2.5
78%
Under 22%
Both teams score
74%
No 26%
Latest games: Fenerbahçe
Dvs Slavia Praha2-2
L@ Aston Villa6-0
Dvs Roma1-1
Latest games: Liverpool
Wvs Villarreal4-3
W@ LASK3-6
Wvs Atleti2-1
20:00Low reliability
Home
RB Leipzig
1-1likely
Away
Man City
Model1 · RB Leipzig 42%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMERB Leipzig
VS
AWAYMan City
142%
X21%
237%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.9
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LWL
Away form
WLW
Most likely score1-18%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.0 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.9 for Man City. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · RB Leipzig42%
Safer double chance1X63%
Most likely exact score1-18%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • Man CityMan City attack: scores 18% more than the league average.
  • Man CityMan City defence: concedes 12% less than average.
  • MatchRecent form: RB Leipzig LWL, Man City WLW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.9 for Man City: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.0 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.9 for Man City. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Both teams score73%
League average for this market59% · +15 points
Safer alternative1X · 63%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 74% · Both teams score · 73%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
8% · then 2-1, 2-2
Expected goals
2.0 - 1.9
total 3.9
Over 2.5
74%
Under 26%
Both teams score
73%
No 27%
Latest games: RB Leipzig
L@ Real Madrid4-1
Wvs PSV1-0
L@ Como 19074-1
Latest games: Man City
Wvs PAE AEK5-1
Lvs PSG2-4
W@ Porto0-2
20:00High reliability
Home
Slavia Praha
1-2likely
Away
Arsenal
Model2 · Arsenal 60%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMESlavia Praha
VS
AWAYArsenal
119%
X21%
260%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.1
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LLD
Away form
WWD
Most likely score1-210%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.1 goals for Slavia Praha and 2.1 for Arsenal. Arsenal are favourites even away from home (60%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Arsenal60%
Safer double chanceX281%
Most likely exact score1-210%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • ArsenalArsenal defence: concedes 38% less than average.
  • Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
  • Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha defence: concedes 17% more than average.
  • ArsenalArsenal attack: scores 13% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Slavia Praha and 2.1 for Arsenal: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.1 goals for Slavia Praha and 2.1 for Arsenal. Arsenal are favourites even away from home (60%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Arsenal avoid defeat81%
League average for this market48% · +33 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 81%
Other strong marketsX2 · Arsenal avoid defeat · 81% · X2 + Over 1.5 · 68%
Most likely exact score1-2 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-2
10% · then 1-1, 0-2
Expected goals
1.1 - 2.1
total 3.2
Over 2.5
63%
Under 38%
Both teams score
59%
No 41%
Latest games: Slavia Praha
D@ Fenerbahçe2-2
L@ Sabah FK2-0
Lvs RC Lens2-3
Latest games: Arsenal
D@ Bayern2-2
Wvs Lille3-0
W@ Napoli0-1
Latest head-to-heads
04/11/25Slavia Praha – Arsenal0-3
20:00Medium reliability
Home
PSV
1-1likely
Away
Club Brugge
Model1 · PSV 48%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPSV
VS
AWAYClub Brugge
148%
X22%
230%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.6
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
DLW
Away form
LWW
Most likely score1-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.0 goals for PSV and 1.6 for Club Brugge. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · PSV48%
Safer double chance1X70%
Most likely exact score1-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • PSVPSV attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
  • Club BruggeClub Brugge defence: concedes 9% more than average.
  • Club BruggeClub Brugge attack: scores 7% more than the league average.
  • PSVPSV defence: concedes 7% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for PSV and 1.6 for Club Brugge: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.0 goals for PSV and 1.6 for Club Brugge. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Both teams score69%
League average for this market59% · +10 points
Safer alternative1X · 70%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 70% · 1X · PSV avoid defeat · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
9% · then 2-1, 2-2
Expected goals
2.0 - 1.6
total 3.6
Over 2.5
70%
Under 30%
Both teams score
69%
No 31%
Latest games: PSV
W@ Porto0-1
L@ RB Leipzig1-0
Dvs Shaktar1-1
Latest games: Club Brugge
Wvs RC Lens3-0
W@ Inter3-4
Lvs Aston Villa2-3
20:00Medium reliability
Home
Dortmund
2-1likely
Away
Real Betis
Model1 · Dortmund 53%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEDortmund
VS
AWAYReal Betis
153%
X21%
226%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.4
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
WLW
Away form
WWW
Most likely score2-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.1 goals for Dortmund and 1.4 for Real Betis. Dortmund start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Dortmund53%
Safer double chance1X74%
Most likely exact score2-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • DortmundDortmund defence: concedes 16% less than average.
  • Real BetisReal Betis defence: concedes 7% less than average.
  • Real BetisReal Betis attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
  • MatchRecent form: Dortmund WLW, Real Betis WWW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Dortmund and 1.4 for Real Betis: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.1 goals for Dortmund and 1.4 for Real Betis. Dortmund start as favourites (53%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Both teams score67%
League average for this market59% · +9 points
Safer alternative1X · 74%
Other strong markets1X · Dortmund avoid defeat · 74% · Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 69%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
9% · then 1-1, 2-2
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.4
total 3.6
Over 2.5
69%
Under 31%
Both teams score
67%
No 33%
Latest games: Dortmund
W@ Sabah FK1-2
L@ Bodø/Glimt1-0
Wvs Villarreal3-2
Latest games: Real Betis
Wvs Feyenoord1-0
Wvs Porto3-2
W@ Lille2-3
20:00Low reliability
Home
Porto
1-1likely
Away
Napoli
Model1 · Porto 40%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPorto
VS
AWAYNapoli
140%
X23%
237%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.7
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LLL
Away form
LLW
Most likely score1-110%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.8 goals for Porto and 1.7 for Napoli. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Porto40%
Safer double chance1X63%
Most likely exact score1-110%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • PortoPorto attack: scores 22% less than the league average.
  • PortoPorto defence: concedes 10% more than average.
  • MatchRecent form: Porto LLL, Napoli LLW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
  • NapoliNapoli defence: concedes 1% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Porto and 1.7 for Napoli: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.8 goals for Porto and 1.7 for Napoli. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 · Napoli avoid defeat60%
League average for this market48% · +12 points
Safer alternative1X · 63%
Other strong marketsBoth teams score · 68% · Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 67%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 10%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
10% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.8 - 1.7
total 3.5
Over 2.5
67%
Under 33%
Both teams score
68%
No 32%
Latest games: Porto
Lvs PSV0-1
L@ Real Betis3-2
Lvs Man City0-2
Latest games: Napoli
Wvs Bodø/Glimt4-3
L@ Villarreal3-1
Lvs Arsenal0-1
20:00Low reliability
Home
RC Lens
1-2likely
Away
Como 1907
Model2 · Como 1907 44%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMERC Lens
VS
AWAYComo 1907
135%
X21%
244%
Expected goals1.8 – 2.1
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WLL
Away form
WLW
Most likely score1-28%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.8 goals for RC Lens and 2.1 for Como 1907. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Como 190744%
Safer double chanceX265%
Most likely exact score1-28%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • Como 1907Como 1907 attack: scores 22% more than the league average.
  • RC LensRC Lens attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
  • Como 1907Como 1907 defence: concedes 11% less than average.
  • RC LensRC Lens defence: concedes 6% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for RC Lens and 2.1 for Como 1907: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.8 goals for RC Lens and 2.1 for Como 1907. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.559%
League average for this market40% · +19 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 65%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 74% · Both teams score · 73%
Most likely exact score1-2 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-2
8% · then 1-1, 2-2
Expected goals
1.8 - 2.1
total 3.9
Over 2.5
74%
Under 26%
Both teams score
73%
No 27%
Latest games: RC Lens
L@ Club Brugge3-0
Lvs Sporting CP0-2
W@ Slavia Praha2-3
Latest games: Como 1907
Wvs Man United4-1
L@ Feyenoord3-2
Wvs RB Leipzig4-1
20:00High reliability
Home
Viking
2-1likely
Away
Sabah FK
Model1 · Viking 58%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEViking
VS
AWAYSabah FK
158%
X20%
222%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.4
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LDL
Away form
LWL
Most likely score2-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.3 goals for Viking and 1.4 for Sabah FK. Viking start as favourites (58%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Viking58%
Safer double chance1X78%
Most likely exact score2-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • Sabah FKSabah FK attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
  • VikingViking defence: concedes 13% more than average.
  • Sabah FKSabah FK defence: concedes 10% more than average.
  • VikingViking attack: scores 6% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.3 goals for Viking and 1.4 for Sabah FK: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.3 goals for Viking and 1.4 for Sabah FK. Viking start as favourites (58%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
1X + Over 1.570%
League average for this market58% · +12 points
Safer alternative1X · 78%
Other strong markets1X · Viking avoid defeat · 78% · Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 72%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
9% · then 1-1, 3-1
Expected goals
2.3 - 1.4
total 3.8
Over 2.5
72%
Under 28%
Both teams score
68%
No 32%
Latest games: Viking
L@ Aston Villa3-1
Dvs Bayern3-3
L@ Stuttgart3-1
Latest games: Sabah FK
Lvs Dortmund1-2
Wvs Slavia Praha2-0
L@ Man United4-0

Next rounds

Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.

Matchday 5

Galatasaray – Aston VillaTue 24 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-21 31%X 20%2 49%
Bodø/Glimt – LASKTue 24 Nov 17:45 · likely 2-11 57%X 19%2 24%
Real Madrid – PSVTue 24 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-11 74%X 15%2 11%
Man City – NapoliTue 24 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-11 67%X 17%2 16%
Arsenal – DortmundTue 24 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-01 66%X 19%2 15%
Feyenoord – PortoTue 24 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-11 59%X 20%2 21%
Sl. Bratislava – Real BetisTue 24 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-21 27%X 21%2 52%
RB Leipzig – RC LensTue 24 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-11 60%X 19%2 21%
Como 1907 – PAE AEKTue 24 Nov 20:00 · likely 3-11 79%X 12%2 9%
Sabah FK – BarçaWed 25 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-21 24%X 19%2 57%
Slavia Praha – VillarrealWed 25 Nov 17:45 · likely 1-11 36%X 21%2 42%
Inter – StuttgartWed 25 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-11 49%X 22%2 30%
Atleti – VikingWed 25 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-11 72%X 16%2 12%
PSG – RomaWed 25 Nov 20:00 · likely 3-11 67%X 16%2 17%
Club Brugge – LiverpoolWed 25 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-21 41%X 20%2 39%
Lille – BayernWed 25 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-21 26%X 19%2 55%
Sporting CP – Man UnitedWed 25 Nov 20:00 · likely 1-11 47%X 22%2 31%
Shaktar – FenerbahçeWed 25 Nov 20:00 · likely 2-11 64%X 19%2 17%

Matchday 6

Villarreal – Sabah FKTue 8 Dec 17:45 · likely 2-11 69%X 16%2 15%
Viking – FeyenoordTue 8 Dec 17:45 · likely 2-11 54%X 20%2 26%
Barça – Man CityTue 8 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 64%X 17%2 20%
Aston Villa – PSGTue 8 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 53%X 19%2 28%
Bayern – Slavia PrahaTue 8 Dec 20:00 · likely 3-11 85%X 9%2 6%
Napoli – Club BruggeTue 8 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 55%X 19%2 26%
Roma – Sporting CPTue 8 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 63%X 18%2 19%
Man United – RB LeipzigTue 8 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 60%X 19%2 21%
PAE AEK – GalatasarayTue 8 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 48%X 21%2 31%
Real Betis – Como 1907Wed 9 Dec 17:45 · likely 2-11 48%X 20%2 31%
Sl. Bratislava – ShaktarWed 9 Dec 17:45 · likely 1-11 37%X 23%2 40%
Arsenal – Real MadridWed 9 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 59%X 20%2 21%
Dortmund – InterWed 9 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 54%X 21%2 25%
PSV – AtletiWed 9 Dec 20:00 · likely 1-11 34%X 25%2 41%
Liverpool – PortoWed 9 Dec 20:00 · likely 3-11 80%X 12%2 9%
RC Lens – Bodø/GlimtWed 9 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 55%X 20%2 25%
LASK – FenerbahçeWed 9 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 63%X 17%2 20%
Stuttgart – LilleWed 9 Dec 20:00 · likely 2-11 72%X 15%2 12%

Already played

Last 18 predicted matches: outcome right 11 times out of 18.

Wed 21/10Full time
Real Madrid
4-1
RB Leipzig
✓ Outcome right (1 at 66%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Wed 21/10Full time
Inter
1-0
Shaktar
✓ Outcome right (1 at 46%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Wed 21/10Full time
Bayern
2-2
Arsenal
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 51%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Wed 21/10Full time
Club Brugge
3-0
RC Lens
✓ Outcome right (1 at 61%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Wed 21/10Full time
Aston Villa
3-1
Viking
✓ Outcome right (1 at 65%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Wed 21/10Full time
Sporting CP
2-3
LASK
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 65%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-0
Wed 21/10Full time
Real Betis
1-0
Feyenoord
✓ Outcome right (1 at 68%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Wed 21/10Full time
Como 1907
4-1
Man United
✓ Outcome right (1 at 56%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Wed 21/10Full time
Lille
2-4
Galatasaray
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 54%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Tue 20/10Full time
Man City
5-1
PAE AEK
✓ Outcome right (1 at 54%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Tue 20/10Full time
Stuttgart
1-1
Atleti
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 48%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Tue 20/10Full time
Liverpool
4-3
Villarreal
✓ Outcome right (1 at 65%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Tue 20/10Full time
Roma
4-0
Sl. Bratislava
✓ Outcome right (1 at 64%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Tue 20/10Full time
Porto
0-1
PSV
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 45%)✕ Over/Under 2.5✕ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Tue 20/10Full time
Napoli
4-3
Bodø/Glimt
✓ Outcome right (1 at 48%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Tue 20/10Full time
PSG
4-2
Barça
✓ Outcome right (1 at 58%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1
Tue 20/10Full time
Sabah FK
1-2
Dortmund
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 47%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 1-1
Tue 20/10Full time
Fenerbahçe
2-2
Slavia Praha
✕ Outcome wrong (1 at 65%)✓ Over/Under 2.5✓ Both teams scorePredicted score 2-1