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Champions League · matchday 4

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

Feyenoord – Inter

Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
Feyenoord
1-1likely
Away
Inter
Model1 · Feyenoord 41%
Match CenterStatistics only
VS
AWAYInter
141%
X22%
237%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.8
Reliabilitylow
Home form
LWL
Away form
LLW
Most likely score1-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.9 goals for Feyenoord and 1.8 for Inter. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Feyenoord41%
Safer double chance1X63%
Most likely exact score1-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • FeyenoordFeyenoord attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
  • InterInter defence: concedes 7% less than average.
  • FeyenoordFeyenoord defence: concedes 7% more than average.
  • InterInter attack: scores 6% more than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Feyenoord and 1.8 for Inter: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.9 goals for Feyenoord and 1.8 for Inter. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.552%
League average for this market40% · +12 points
Safer alternative1X · 63%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 71% · Both teams score · 71%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
9% · then 2-1, 1-2
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.8
total 3.7
Over 2.5
71%
Under 29%
Both teams score
71%
No 29%
Latest games: Feyenoord
L@ Real Betis1-0
Wvs Como 19073-2
L@ Barça5-1
Latest games: Inter
Wvs Shaktar1-0
Lvs Club Brugge3-4
L@ Real Madrid2-1

All Champions League matches →