Barça – Aston Villa
Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00High reliabilityHomeBarça2-1likelyAwayAston VillaModel1 · Barça 59%
The model expects 2.8 goals for Barça and 1.8 for Aston Villa. Barça start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
- BarçaBarça attack: scores 42% more than the league average.
- Aston VillaAston Villa attack: scores 25% more than the league average.
- Aston VillaAston Villa defence: concedes 16% less than average.
- BarçaBarça defence: concedes 12% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.8 goals for Barça and 1.8 for Aston Villa: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.8 goals for Barça and 1.8 for Aston Villa. Barça start as favourites (59%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.