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Champions League · matchday 4

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

RC Lens – Como 1907

Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Low reliability
Home
RC Lens
1-2likely
Away
Como 1907
Model2 · Como 1907 44%
Match CenterStatistics only
135%
X21%
244%
Expected goals1.8 – 2.1
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WLL
Away form
WLW
Most likely score1-28%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.8 goals for RC Lens and 2.1 for Como 1907. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Como 190744%
Safer double chanceX265%
Most likely exact score1-28%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • Como 1907Como 1907 attack: scores 22% more than the league average.
  • RC LensRC Lens attack: scores 11% less than the league average.
  • Como 1907Como 1907 defence: concedes 11% less than average.
  • RC LensRC Lens defence: concedes 6% more than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for RC Lens and 2.1 for Como 1907: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.8 goals for RC Lens and 2.1 for Como 1907. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.559%
League average for this market40% · +19 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 65%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 74% · Both teams score · 73%
Most likely exact score1-2 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-2
8% · then 1-1, 2-2
Expected goals
1.8 - 2.1
total 3.9
Over 2.5
74%
Under 26%
Both teams score
73%
No 27%
Latest games: RC Lens
L@ Club Brugge3-0
Lvs Sporting CP0-2
W@ Slavia Praha2-3
Latest games: Como 1907
Wvs Man United4-1
L@ Feyenoord3-2
Wvs RB Leipzig4-1

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