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Champions League · matchday 4

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

PAE AEK – Real Madrid

Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 17:45. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

17:45High reliability
Home
PAE AEK
1-2likely
Away
Real Madrid
Model2 · Real Madrid 56%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPAE AEK
VS
AWAYReal Madrid
125%
X19%
256%
Expected goals1.6 – 2.4
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
WLL
Away form
WWW
Most likely score1-28%
Why this outcome

The model expects 1.6 goals for PAE AEK and 2.4 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid are favourites even away from home (56%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome2 · Real Madrid56%
Safer double chanceX275%
Most likely exact score1-28%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • Real MadridReal Madrid attack: scores 29% more than the league average.
  • PAE AEKPAE AEK attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
  • PAE AEKPAE AEK defence: concedes 17% more than average.
  • Real MadridReal Madrid defence: concedes 15% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for PAE AEK and 2.4 for Real Madrid: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 1.6 goals for PAE AEK and 2.4 for Real Madrid. Real Madrid are favourites even away from home (56%). News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
X2 + Over 1.569%
League average for this market40% · +30 points
Safer alternativeX2 · 75%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 77% · X2 · Real Madrid avoid defeat · 75%
Most likely exact score1-2 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-2
8% · then 1-1, 1-3
Expected goals
1.6 - 2.4
total 4.0
Over 2.5
77%
Under 23%
Both teams score
73%
No 27%
Latest games: PAE AEK
L@ Man City5-1
L@ Shaktar3-1
Wvs LASK1-0
Latest games: Real Madrid
Wvs RB Leipzig4-1
W@ Roma3-4
Wvs Inter2-1

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