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Champions League · matchday 4

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

LASK – Sl. Bratislava

Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00High reliability
Home
LASK
2-1likely
Away
Sl. Bratislava
Model1 · LASK 67%
Match CenterStatistics only
167%
X16%
216%
Expected goals2.8 – 1.4
Reliabilityhigh
Home form
LLW
Away form
LLL
Most likely score2-18%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.8 goals for LASK and 1.4 for Sl. Bratislava. LASK start as favourites (67%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · LASK67%
Safer double chance1X84%
Most likely exact score2-18%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • Sl. BratislavaSl. Bratislava defence: concedes 28% more than average.
  • Sl. BratislavaSl. Bratislava attack: scores 25% less than the league average.
  • LASKLASK defence: concedes 22% more than average.
  • LASKLASK attack: scores 3% less than the league average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.8 goals for LASK and 1.4 for Sl. Bratislava: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.8 goals for LASK and 1.4 for Sl. Bratislava. LASK start as favourites (67%), helped by home advantage. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
1X + Over 1.578%
League average for this market58% · +20 points
Safer alternative1X · 84%
Other strong markets1X · LASK avoid defeat · 84% · Over 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 79%
Most likely exact score2-1 · 8%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
2-1
8% · then 3-1, 2-0
Expected goals
2.8 - 1.4
total 4.2
Over 2.5
79%
Under 21%
Both teams score
71%
No 29%
Latest games: LASK
W@ Sporting CP2-3
Lvs Liverpool3-6
L@ PAE AEK1-0
Latest games: Sl. Bratislava
L@ Roma4-0
Lvs Stuttgart0-3
L@ PSG6-1

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