Atleti – Bayern
Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeAtleti2-1likelyAwayBayernModel1 · Atleti 49%
The model expects 2.1 goals for Atleti and 1.7 for Bayern. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
- BayernBayern attack: scores 41% more than the league average.
- AtletiAtleti defence: concedes 24% less than average.
- BayernBayern defence: concedes 12% less than average.
- AtletiAtleti attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.1 goals for Atleti and 1.7 for Bayern: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.1 goals for Atleti and 1.7 for Bayern. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.