Porto – Napoli
Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
20:00Low reliabilityHomePorto1-1likelyAwayNapoliModel1 · Porto 40%
The model expects 1.8 goals for Porto and 1.7 for Napoli. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
- PortoPorto attack: scores 22% less than the league average.
- PortoPorto defence: concedes 10% more than average.
- MatchRecent form: Porto LLL, Napoli LLW (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
- NapoliNapoli defence: concedes 1% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Porto and 1.7 for Napoli: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.8 goals for Porto and 1.7 for Napoli. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.