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Champions League · matchday 4

Real dataStatistics onlyUpdated 26/10 08:41

PSV – Club Brugge

Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 20:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.

20:00Medium reliability
Home
PSV
1-1likely
Away
Club Brugge
Model1 · PSV 48%
Match CenterStatistics only
HOMEPSV
VS
148%
X22%
230%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.6
Reliabilitymedium
Home form
DLW
Away form
LWW
Most likely score1-19%
Why this outcome

The model expects 2.0 goals for PSV and 1.6 for Club Brugge. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · PSV48%
Safer double chance1X70%
Most likely exact score1-19%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Why the model says this

  • MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 47% more than the away side.
  • PSVPSV attack: scores 20% less than the league average.
  • Club BruggeClub Brugge defence: concedes 9% more than average.
  • Club BruggeClub Brugge attack: scores 7% more than the league average.
  • PSVPSV defence: concedes 7% less than average.

Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for PSV and 1.6 for Club Brugge: the probability of every score comes from here.

Statistical analysis

The model expects 2.0 goals for PSV and 1.6 for Club Brugge. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. News on injuries and suspensions is checked in the 48 hours before the match.

The model's final prediction
Both teams score69%
League average for this market59% · +10 points
Safer alternative1X · 70%
Other strong marketsOver 2.5 · at least 3 goals · 70% · 1X · PSV avoid defeat · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 9%

A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.

Likely score
1-1
9% · then 2-1, 2-2
Expected goals
2.0 - 1.6
total 3.6
Over 2.5
70%
Under 30%
Both teams score
69%
No 31%
Latest games: PSV
W@ Porto0-1
L@ RB Leipzig1-0
Dvs Shaktar1-1
Latest games: Club Brugge
Wvs RC Lens3-0
W@ Inter3-4
Lvs Aston Villa2-3

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