Swansea – Blackburn
Championship · Saturday 31 October 15:00. Statistical estimates from the model: not certainties and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeSwansea1-1likelyAwayBlackburnModel1 · Swansea 42%
Home
Swansea
1-1likely
Away
Blackburn
Match CenterStatistics only
142%
X29%
229%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Reliabilitylow
Home form
WWWLL
Away form
DWWLW
Most likely score1-113%
Why this outcome
The model expects 1.3 goals for Swansea and 1.1 for Blackburn. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
✦ The model's final prediction
Most likely 1X2 outcome1 · Swansea42%
Safer double chance1X71%
Most likely exact score1-113%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- SwanseaSwansea defence: concedes 10% less than average.
- BlackburnBlackburn defence: concedes 7% less than average.
- BlackburnBlackburn attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- SwanseaSwansea attack: scores 5% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Swansea and 1.1 for Blackburn: the probability of every score comes from here.
Statistical analysis
The model expects 1.3 goals for Swansea and 1.1 for Blackburn. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
The model's final prediction
Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals57%
League average for this market48% · +10 points
Safer alternative1X · 71%
Other strong markets1X · Swansea avoid defeat · 71% · Over 1.5 · at least 2 goals · 70%
Most likely exact score1-1 · 13%
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Likely score
1-1
13% · then 1-0, 0-0
Expected goals
1.3 - 1.1
total 2.4
Over 2.5
43%
Under 57%
Both teams score
49%
No 51%
Latest games: Swansea
L@ QPR5-0
Lvs West Ham0-1
W@ Millwall0-1
Wvs Norwich2-1
W@ Lincoln City1-2
Latest games: Blackburn
Wvs Wrexham2-0
L@ West Brom3-2
W@ Bristol City0-1
Wvs Cardiff2-1
D@ Portsmouth2-2
Latest head-to-heads
20/01/26Swansea – Blackburn3-1
30/09/25Blackburn – Swansea1-2