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Friday 30 October
20:00Medium reliabilityHomeSheffield Utd1-1likelyAwayWrexhamModel1 · Sheffield Utd 46%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.2 for Wrexham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- WrexhamWrexham defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd attack: scores 3% more than the league average.
- WrexhamWrexham attack: scores 1% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.2 for Wrexham: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.2 for Wrexham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Saturday 31 October
12:30High reliabilityHomeStoke1-1likelyAwayPreston NEModel1 · Stoke 57%
The model expects 1.8 goals for Stoke and 1.0 for Preston NE. Stoke start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- Preston NEPreston NE defence: concedes 27% more than average.
- Preston NEPreston NE attack: scores 21% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- StokeStoke attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- MatchRecent form: Stoke WWLWD, Preston NE DLLLD (small weight: at most ±3% on expected goals).
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.8 goals for Stoke and 1.0 for Preston NE: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.8 goals for Stoke and 1.0 for Preston NE. Stoke start as favourites (57%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
12:30High reliabilityHomeNorwich1-1likelyAwayWatfordModel1 · Norwich 58%
The model expects 1.9 goals for Norwich and 1.0 for Watford. Norwich start as favourites (58%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- WatfordWatford attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- WatfordWatford defence: concedes 15% more than average.
- NorwichNorwich attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
- NorwichNorwich defence: concedes 6% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Norwich and 1.0 for Watford: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.9 goals for Norwich and 1.0 for Watford. Norwich start as favourites (58%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
12:30Medium reliabilityHomeLincoln City1-1likelyAwayBirminghamModel2 · Birmingham 46%
The model expects 1.1 goals for Lincoln City and 1.5 for Birmingham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- BirminghamBirmingham defence: concedes 18% less than average.
- Lincoln CityLincoln City attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- Lincoln CityLincoln City defence: concedes 12% more than average.
- BirminghamBirmingham attack: scores 5% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.1 goals for Lincoln City and 1.5 for Birmingham: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.1 goals for Lincoln City and 1.5 for Birmingham. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeWolverhampton1-1likelyAwayCardiffModel1 · Wolverhampton 44%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.3 for Cardiff. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- CardiffCardiff attack: scores 11% more than the league average.
- WolverhamptonWolverhampton attack: scores 6% more than the league average.
- WolverhamptonWolverhampton defence: concedes 6% less than average.
- CardiffCardiff defence: concedes 1% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.3 for Cardiff: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.3 for Cardiff. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00High reliabilityHomeWest Ham1-1likelyAwayWest BromModel1 · West Ham 60%
The model expects 2.0 goals for West Ham and 1.0 for West Brom. West Ham start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- West HamWest Ham attack: scores 55% more than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- West BromWest Brom defence: concedes 13% less than average.
- West BromWest Brom attack: scores 12% less than the league average.
- West HamWest Ham defence: concedes 6% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for West Ham and 1.0 for West Brom: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.0 goals for West Ham and 1.0 for West Brom. West Ham start as favourites (60%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeSwansea1-1likelyAwayBlackburnModel1 · Swansea 42%
The model expects 1.3 goals for Swansea and 1.1 for Blackburn. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- SwanseaSwansea defence: concedes 10% less than average.
- BlackburnBlackburn defence: concedes 7% less than average.
- BlackburnBlackburn attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- SwanseaSwansea attack: scores 5% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.3 goals for Swansea and 1.1 for Blackburn: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.3 goals for Swansea and 1.1 for Blackburn. An open match: no outcome is above 50%. A draw remains plausible (29%).
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeBolton1-1likelyAwayBristol CityModel1 · Bolton 41%
The model expects 1.4 goals for Bolton and 1.2 for Bristol City. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- Bristol CityBristol City attack: scores 18% less than the league average.
- BoltonBolton defence: concedes 17% more than average.
- Bristol CityBristol City defence: concedes 5% less than average.
- BoltonBolton attack: scores 2% less than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.4 goals for Bolton and 1.2 for Bristol City: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Bolton and 1.2 for Bristol City. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00High reliabilityHomeMiddlesbrough2-0likelyAwayCharltonModel1 · Middlesbrough 65%
The model expects 2.0 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.8 for Charlton. Middlesbrough start as favourites (65%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough attack: scores 28% more than the league average.
- CharltonCharlton attack: scores 26% less than the league average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough defence: concedes 9% less than average.
- CharltonCharlton defence: concedes 4% more than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 2.0 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.8 for Charlton: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 2.0 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.8 for Charlton. Middlesbrough start as favourites (65%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Low reliabilityHomeBurnley1-1likelyAwayPortsmouthModel2 · Portsmouth 40%
The model expects 1.5 goals for Burnley and 1.6 for Portsmouth. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- BurnleyBurnley defence: concedes 33% more than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- PortsmouthPortsmouth attack: scores 6% less than the league average.
- PortsmouthPortsmouth defence: concedes 4% less than average.
- BurnleyBurnley attack: scores 2% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.5 goals for Burnley and 1.6 for Portsmouth: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.5 goals for Burnley and 1.6 for Portsmouth. An open match: no outcome is above 50%.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00Medium reliabilityHomeMillwall1-1likelyAwayDerby CountyModel1 · Millwall 51%
The model expects 1.6 goals for Millwall and 1.0 for Derby County. Millwall start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- Derby CountyDerby County attack: scores 13% less than the league average.
- Derby CountyDerby County defence: concedes 6% more than average.
- MillwallMillwall defence: concedes 5% less than average.
- MillwallMillwall attack: scores 4% more than the league average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.6 goals for Millwall and 1.0 for Derby County: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.6 goals for Millwall and 1.0 for Derby County. Millwall start as favourites (51%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
15:00High reliabilityHomeSouthampton1-1likelyAwayQPRModel1 · Southampton 56%
The model expects 1.9 goals for Southampton and 1.1 for QPR. Southampton start as favourites (56%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Why the model says this
- SouthamptonSouthampton attack: scores 29% more than the league average.
- SouthamptonSouthampton defence: concedes 20% less than average.
- MatchHome advantage: in this league the home side scores on average 20% more than the away side.
- QPRQPR attack: scores 9% more than the league average.
- QPRQPR defence: concedes 4% less than average.
Putting these factors together, the model expects 1.9 goals for Southampton and 1.1 for QPR: the probability of every score comes from here.
The model expects 1.9 goals for Southampton and 1.1 for QPR. Southampton start as favourites (56%), helped by home advantage.
A statistical estimate from the model: not a certainty and not an invitation to gamble.
Next rounds
Statistical model only: news on injuries and suspensions arrives in the 48 hours before each match. Probabilities change after every round.